Tag Archives: Credit Default Swap

72 Hour Call for June 30, 2011

Today’s Call:  NO CALL, taking a break as we revert to the mean.

Rationale:  As you can see, our calls are reverting to the mean.  It has occurred to us that many of our bad calls end up panning out after the 72 hour time period.  We are going to start a new service based on our findings during this experiment which will give position entry and exit recommendations.  Thank you for watching this space and stay tuned!

Result of Call for June 27, 2011:  Spain 5yr Credit Default Swap to rise.  Was 315.20, Currently 269.70.  Bad Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 32, Bad Calls: 29, Batting .525

Key Indicators for Thursday, June 30, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.26
Oil Price per Barrel:  $94.98 A FAILURE TO INFLATE, WILL TREND LOWER

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.29   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.16% WITH THE FED OUT, THE SKY’S THE LIMIT
FED Target Rate:  0.07%  JAPAN HERE WE COME!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,500 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,414  WINDOW DRESSING FOR 401K PORTFOLIOS
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,954,300,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,098,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 27, 2011

Today’s Call:  Spain 5yr Credit Default Swap to rise.  Currently 315.20.

Rationale:  Spain has been out of the news for some time as Greece’s debt problems have taken center stage.  However, the chance of increasing unrest along with the realization that banks will likely have to roll over existing sovereign debt in Europe will likely raise risk premiums on all sovereign debt, with Spanish debt being one of the more vulnerable.

Result of Call for June 22, 2011:  Yield on 10 US Treasury to fall, price to rise.  Was 2.99%, Currently 2.93%.  Bad Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 31, Bad Calls: 27, Batting .534

Daily Default:  Los Angeles Dodgers

Key Indicators for Monday, June 27, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.07
Oil Price per Barrel:  $91.30 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.60   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.93%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  UH OH!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,497 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,044
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,895,400,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,086,900,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for April 26, 2011

Today’s Call: Japan Government Bond (JGB) 5 year yield to fall. Currently 0.49%.

Rationale – Anticipation of combination of FED signaling continued easy money policies coupled with BOJ bond purchases in wake of disaster increasing price of JGB farther out on the yield curve.

Result of Call for April 20, 2011: Greek 5-YR Sovereign Credit Default Swap to rise. Was 1325.70. Currently 1474.70. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 6, Bad Calls: 7, Batting .462