Tag Archives: US Dollar Index

72 Hour Call for June 24, 2011

Today’s Call: 10 year US Treasury Bond yield to fall (price to rise). Currently 2.87%.

Rationale: Even though there will soon be a heightened risk of default by the US, moves such as releasing oil from the strategic reserve will give reason to believe that the US will make good on its obligations.  With the debt ceiling talks stuck on taxes, soon demand for Treasuries will overwhelm supply.  US Banks still reinvest in Treasuries and will likely continue to be obligated to do so.

Result of Call for June 21, 2011: US Dollar Index to fall.  Was 74.61, Currently 75.63. Bad Call.

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 31, Bad Calls: 26, Batting .544

Key Indicators for Friday, June 24, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel:  $91.16 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.70 MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.87%
FED Target Rate:  0.08% UH OH!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,502 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,935
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,895,400,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,086,900,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 21, 2011

Today’s Call:  US Dollar Index to fall.  Currently 74.61.

Rationale:  The Federal Reserve is beginning its policy meeting today surrounded by the news of an economy that is “headed for” (already in) a depression.  Anticipation of Greek “progress” via a confidence vote to lift the Euro temporarily.  This, along with news that Obama and Boehner are making progress on the US debt ceiling standoff, should shoot the dollar higher.  The Fed cannot let this happen and may even recommend more direct stimulus to taxpayers since QE measures have failed to spur consumer confidence.  This should weaken the dollar.

Result of Call for June 16, 2011:  Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) to fall.  Was $49.00., Currently $50.40.  Bad Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 29, Bad Calls: 25, Batting .537, seriously reverting to the mean!

Key Indicators for Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.40 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.07   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.99%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,546 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,207
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 17, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 12,004.

Rationale:  Despite the fact that there is simply no good news or reason to buy stocks right now, the increases in the M2 Monetary base generally go into the stock market first.  The only question is whether or not it will overwhelm the shorts.  Our guess is that in 72 hours it will.

Result of Call for June 14, 2011:  US Dollar Index to fall.  Was 74.44, Currently 75.02.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 29, Bad Calls: 23, Batting .558

Key Indicators for Friday, June 17, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.11
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.01 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.00   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.94%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,540 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,004
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 14, 2011

Today’s Call:  US Dollar Index to fall.  Currently 74.44.

Rationale:  It appears that the march out of US Treasuries and into cash has begun.  Big banks really have no choice.  With the US political establishment in gridlock on the debt ceiling there is now growing principal risk in holding US Treasuries.  Without the prospect of further debt expansion to mop up all of the excess cash in the system in the short term, the Fed is resorting to the tactic of deflationary propaganda in a futile attempt to quell inflationary pressures.

Result of Call for June 9, 2011:  July Corn Price Per Bushel to rise.  Was $7.85-4, Currently $7.55-4.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 28, Bad Calls: 21, Batting .571

Key Indicators for Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.16
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.43

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.55
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.10%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,524

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,076
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT!

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for May 26, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall. Currently 12,402.

Rationale:  Dow rose today on mostly bearish news.  Ripe for a selloff.  Key Dow financials components are being seen as weak. Combination of selling and stronger dollar to lower Dow.

Result of Call for May 23, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 76.14, Currently 75.57. Bad Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 15, Batting .594

72 Hour Call for May 23, 2011

Today’s Call:  USD Index to rise.  Currently 76.14.

Rationale:  Sell-offs in stocks and money fleeing the Eurozone to initially land in US Dollar accounts.

Result of Call for May 18, 2011:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall).  Was 3.165%. Currently 3.134%.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 20, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .588

72 Hour Call for May 13, 2011

Today’s Call:  USD Index fall.  Currently 75.73.

Rationale – Today’s Headline news generally positive for the Dollar, anticipate sell off, exiting of dollar positions.

Result of Call for May 10, 2011:  Citigroup (C) to fall. Was $44.20. Currently $41.83.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 17, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .607