Today’s Call: 10 year US Treasury Bond yield to fall (price to rise). Currently 2.87%.
Rationale: Even though there will soon be a heightened risk of default by the US, moves such as releasing oil from the strategic reserve will give reason to believe that the US will make good on its obligations. With the debt ceiling talks stuck on taxes, soon demand for Treasuries will overwhelm supply. US Banks still reinvest in Treasuries and will likely continue to be obligated to do so.
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 31, Bad Calls: 26, Batting .544
Key Indicators for Friday, June 24, 2011
Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,502 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 2.25%
Unemployment Rate: 9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 11,935
M1 Monetary Base: $1,895,400,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base: $9,086,900,000,000 YIKES!!!
*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog. This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy. This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.