Tag Archives: Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Rises against a Wave of Bad News, The Inflation Mega-Trend Releases Caged Currency into the Wild

11/7/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
The fairy tale of the world’s current financial system continued today.  Stocks crept higher in the face of what seems to be a deluge of bad news:

“Frustration mounts for MF Global clients” – Jon Corzine’s firm cannot account for $600 million in client funds.  Beyond the inability to deliver client funds on demand, MF Global clients began receiving margin calls as their collateral with the firm vanished.  The ripple effect was so severe that commodities exchanges relaxed their margin rules in order to to avoid wider damage.  The fall of MF Global was like an earthquake, now it is time to brace for the financial Tsunami.

New Census data raise number of poor to 49 million” – The official poverty rate is 15.1%.  However, it hits 16% when you slide the income bar just a bit higher to $24,343 for a family of four.  In other words, one in six Americans is currently living below this slightly adjusted poverty measure.

“Italy bond yields soar; euro zone troubles deepen” – Lest we forget that the euro financial system is a complete disaster, Italian yields are climbing and the Italian bond market is beginning to resemble the leaning tower of Pisa.  Then came reports that Spain only had 20 billion Euros in reserves at the end of August (they must have spent their savings on vacation!) and as their banking system crumbles, they are largely helpless to intervene to save it.  Meanwhile France is now pushing austerity leaving Germany and the ECB as the only backstops in Europe.

Yet in spite of this disasterous news, the Dow is holding just above 12,000.  What does it mean?

Far from signaling economic recovery, the action appears to be further evidence that what Nadeem Walayat at the Market Oracle calls the Inflation Mega-Trend (and consequent Stealth Bull Market in stocks) is firmly in place.

The Mega-Trend, as Mr. Walayat calls it, is the simultaneous debasement of the currency and spreading of deflationary propaganda intended to delay the public’s reaction to the inflation caused by said debasement.

Think about it, while the FED, ECB, BoJ, and nearly every other Central Bank in the world pump money into their financial systems in order to “fight deflation” or “stimulate the export market,” the average person has watched gas, food, and the price of nearly everything else (besides their paycheck) steadily rise over the past decade.

The the public is told that these steady increases are “healthy inflation” which is currently “understood” to be roughly 2% a year.  This 2% in reality represents the indirect tax rate imposed on anyone who chooses to hold a currency as an asset or accept the currency as wages.  There is not time here to properly refute the fallacy that inflation is somehow necessary for GDP growth.  However, inflation is useful and absolutely necessary to keep an insane, “debt is money”, ponziesque, wealth destroying monetary system functioning.

As the Central Bank creates trillions of dollars out of thin air in a vain attempt to stabilize the global financial system, the public is told that it this new currency is “benign” because most of the money is being held on deposit at the Federal Reserve simply to buffer the banks against falling asset prices and keep the ATM machines spitting out cash.

Yet, with the stock market maintaining its optimism in the face of seeming insurmountable odds, can you be sure that the FED’s funny money is safely locked up in its electronic vaults, simply waiting to have foreclosed properties written off against it?

Will all of this freshly printed money really be content to simply die a quiet death, never having run through an ATM or point of sale transaction in the real world?

Oh, fellow taxpayer, we have our doubts.  You should too.  More tomorrow.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

Key Indicators for November 7, 2011

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,796 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!! THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

72 Hour Call for June 22, 2011

Today’s Call:  Yield on 10 US Treasury to fall, price to rise.  Currently 2.99%.

Rationale:  The combination of the FED downgrading the economic assessment and announcing no further stimulus along with no clear progress on the debt ceiling will cause, paradoxically, talk of a fiscal stimulus package so that authorities can claim to be “doing something.”  Problems in Greece will cause most funds to repurchase US Treasuries by default to stay away from the Euro.

Result of Call for June 17, 2011:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Was 12,004, Currently 12,163.  Good Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 30, Bad Calls: 25, Batting .545

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel:  $95.06 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.07   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.99%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,549 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,163
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 17, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 12,004.

Rationale:  Despite the fact that there is simply no good news or reason to buy stocks right now, the increases in the M2 Monetary base generally go into the stock market first.  The only question is whether or not it will overwhelm the shorts.  Our guess is that in 72 hours it will.

Result of Call for June 14, 2011:  US Dollar Index to fall.  Was 74.44, Currently 75.02.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 29, Bad Calls: 23, Batting .558

Key Indicators for Friday, June 17, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.11
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.01 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.00   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.94%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,540 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,004
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 15, 2011

Today’s Call:  Euro to rise vs US DollarCurrently $1.44397:1.

Rationale:  News from the Eurozone, specifically Greece, is almost overwhelmingly negative.  Anticipation of short covering on any good news out of the Eurozone.  Conversely, there is upward pressure on the dollar that may seek short term relief via central bank intervention.

Result of Call for June 10, 2011:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Was 11,952, Currently 11,897.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 28, Bad Calls: 22, Batting .560

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.09
Oil Price per Barrel:  $95.30

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.25
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.97%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,531

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,897
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 10, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 11,952.

Rationale:  Assumption that the plunge protection team will move over the weekend to prop up the Dow, a widely watched stock market indicator.

Result of Call for June 7, 2011:  NY Crude Future Oil to rise.  Was $98.42, Currently $99.29.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 28, Bad Calls: 19, Batting .596

Key Indicators for Friday, June 10, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.02
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.29

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.87
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.97%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,532

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,952
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for June 1, 2011

Today’s Call:  Greek 5-YR Sovereign Credit Default Swap to fall.  Currently 1608.50.

Rationale – Announcement of new bailout fund for Greece to occur shortly.  Greece and any other sovereign nation will be bailed out in various fashions in a frantic attempt to avoid a default.  A sovereign default would mean the beginning of the end of the currency regime and the regime will do everything in its power, no matter how illogical, to avoid it.

Result of Call for May 26, 2011:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall.  Was 12,402, Currently 12,290.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 23, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .575

72 Hour Call for May 26, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall. Currently 12,402.

Rationale:  Dow rose today on mostly bearish news.  Ripe for a selloff.  Key Dow financials components are being seen as weak. Combination of selling and stronger dollar to lower Dow.

Result of Call for May 23, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 76.14, Currently 75.57. Bad Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 15, Batting .594