Tag Archives: Egypt

On the Nature of Empire

3/8/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

In today’s Mint we submit to you, fellow taxpayer, an excerpt of our upcoming E-book release:  On the Nature of Empire.  Enjoy!

Empire:  An Introduction

empire -/’empī(ə)r/- noun -1. An extensive group of states or countries under a single supreme authority or oligarchy.

Derived from the Latin imperium, the word Empire has come to embody the concept of dominance on a grand scale.  From the time of the original Akkadian, Mayan, and Egyptian Empires to the more recent Greek, Roman, and British versions, the ignoble goal of all Imperial activities has been to establish and maintain primacy in the affairs of men and women throughout the entire known world.

Proof of this is found in the nearly invariable behavior of the heads of Empire, known as emperors and empresses, who come to embody the ultimate conceit of the imperial mindset by attempting to establish themselves as a deity.  The conceit is always fatal, for this ridiculous presumption has the nasty side-affect of destroying any shred of legitimacy that the head of Empire may have previously established.  However, whether or not the emperor publically manifests a claim to deity by demanding reverence reserved for the truly divine or, at the opposite end of the spectrum of possible outcomes, they make a demand for reverence that goes largely unchallenged, those who have reigned in the emperor’s chair have invariably come to assume that they had, at their disposal, the divine right to liquidate any and all threats to their claim to the ultimate power over their fellow mortals.

In the twenty first century, it has become clear to most that there is no divine right or imperative for the existence of an Empire on the earth.  As such, an ever increasing number of peoples have thrown off the yoke of Empire in favor of a what has become known as a democratic model of collective governance.  Yet simply changing the rules of governance has not put an end to the core ideals of Empire, and the hallmarks of Imperial rule, namely the tendencies towards a central monopoly on the use of force and the right to demand tribute, have been largely retained by governments today that are elected democratically.  How can this be?

The concept of Empire is a construction of men, and is largely a result of a tolerance by the many of what is nothing more than antisocial behavior by a few.  As we have stated above, an Empire, at its base, is a monopoly on the use of force which evolves into a monopoly on the right to demand tribute.  Living under Imperial rule is not man’s natural state, and it will eventually come into conflict with mankind’s natural disposition for autonomy, commonly known as freedom or the right to self determination.

Why do the many tolerate the antisocial behavior by a few that ultimately leads to Imperial rule?  The answer is that Empires do not appear overnight.  They emerge over relatively long time horizons and, until they approach their blow off phase, may appear to have many benefits.  However, these benefits always come at a great human cost, a cost that is almost always obscured from those who receive them.

It should come as no surprise, then, that there is no historical evidence of an Empire spontaneously arising by mutual consent.  On the contrary, Empires are created and expanded by subjugating a territory and the peoples that inhabit it via either the threat or actual use of military force.  Once subjugated, the Empire attempts to consolidate its control of the territory by exacting tribute from its subject.  From ancient times up to today, an Empire’s demand for tribute ultimately manifests itself in taking control over the food supply.

Joseph and His Brethren Welcomed by Pharaoh, watercolor by James Tissot 1836-1902
Painting “Joseph and His Brethren Welcomed by Pharaoh”, watercolor by James Tissot 1836-1902

One of the more poignant historical examples of this can be found in the Biblical book of Genesis, where Joseph advises the emperor of Egypt at the time, Pharaoh, to store up the Egyptian grain production for a time in anticipation of a seven year famine.  The Pharaoh then sold the grain back to the Egyptians and foreigners during the famine.  While the story generally has a happy ending, it is a stark example of the Imperial prerogative to confiscate property via taxation.

Given this example, it is no surprise that the first known system of taxation was in Ancient Egypt around 3000 BCE – 2800 BCE.

Paradoxically, the subjects of Empire, who could just as easily eat from the foodstuffs they produce and store up their own rainy day funds, find themselves rendering their harvests to the representatives of the Empire, in the case of the Pharaohs, a full 20% of their production, only to be forced to beg them back at a future date when the need arises.  The Paradox is furthered in that the Empire, in attempting to maintain primacy via various forms of taxation, ultimately ensures its demise, as the inherent waste in the Imperial model overwhelm its ability to extract further tribute from its subjects.

The mechanism of taxation itself causes the Empire to weaken, as it indirectly encourages sub optimum activity and in the worst case, inactivity and waste by those who receive the benefits of the proceeds of the taxes.

Long before the Empire becomes aware of its weakened state, the subjects themselves are often the first to realize that the Emperor is wearing no clothes, to borrow Mr. Andersen’s metaphor.  Those with the means and the initiative will move to escape the withering grasp of the Empire.  Those who do not leave are often left to perish in a futile effort to either defend the Empire or oppose it through the same force of arms by which the Empire came to their lands.  For an Empire must ultimately demand allegiance from its subjects, and an intolerance for dissention will tend to increase in direct proportion to the level of weakness of the Empire.

As such, for an Empire to perpetuate itself, it must rely entirely on the force of arms when necessary and coercive propaganda at all times in an ultimately futile attempt to assure it retains the primitive right to meddle in the affairs of others.  In the final blow off phase, which is marked by civil wars such as the one currently playing out in Syria, the Empire will resort almost exclusively to the use of arms to squash dissention.

Yet the maintenance of Empire, like the air travel industry, is in every case a losing proposition.  It is an utter and complete waste of time and money.  To maintain an Empire requires an ever increasing amount of human and intellectual capital which are depleted in ever increasing quantities as the Empire slides into history’s dustbin, where it will simply attach itself to the long list of Empires that were.

The concept of Empire has always been lethal to human existence and prosperity.  However, for some reason it is romanticized in the human psyche.  The purpose of this volume is to gain an understanding of the true nature of Empire and, to convince the reader that not only is Empire, and by extension large scale government, unnecessary, but it is a hindrance to human progress and virtually ensures that the worst elements of humanity will rise to power, where they will ultimately impose their will on the rest of us by violence.  For the violent outcomes the Empires invariably produce are not exceptions to the rule, nor are they merely the norm.

They are literally guaranteed.

Finally, we address Pontius Pilate’s infamous inquiry, to Jesus of Nazareth before His public trial:

“What is truth?”

It is a question that has been left to humanity for two millennia, and it is time that it be answered, for in the answer lies our common fate.

Intrigued?  Stay tuned to The Mint for the book’s release.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for March 8, 2013

Copper Price per Lb: $3.51
Oil Price per Barrel:  $91.95
Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.25
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.06%
FED Target Rate:  0.16%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,585 THE GOLD RUSH IS STILL ON!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.7%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.0%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  14,397
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,481,500,000,000 LOTS OF DOUGH ON THE STREET!
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,377,900,000,000

Egypt and the Strategic Balance via Stratfor

More insight into what is happening in Egypt and what it means for the balance of power in the Middle East. Will the Egyptian military intervene? Enjoy another insightful report by Stratfor on the events unfolding now and what it all means:

Egypt and the Strategic Balance via Stratfor

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Tahrir Square all over again in Egypt, January 2011 Redux

Tahrir Square, January 2011 all over again in Egypt right now:

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Middle East Conflict Analysis: Will Hillary Clinton’s visit to Middle East will result in US engagement?

11/20/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Here at The Mint, we have been following with great interest the recent escalation in the conflict in the Middle East.  It is understood by many that the grievances between the Israelis and the Palestinians are seemingly irreconcilable.  Today, we will attempt to provide a bit of background, along with details we have gathered from various sources regarding the current dynamic, and engage in speculation as to potential outcomes.

Background

While the divisions in the region have deep historical roots, we have attempted to gain what understanding we can of the modern conflict.  Our reading on the matter has been limited to The Bible, The Haj, and The Source, as such, we recognize that our bias is Pro-Israeli.

From these sources, we have cobbled together the following understanding:  Beginning in the early 1900’s as Jewish settlers began to populate Palestine in an attempt to create a homeland where the Jewish people, who had suffered persecution in every other land on the planet, could relocate to escape said persecution.

The logical place to do this, from the Jewish point of view, was to purchase land in the area where the ancient Kingdom of Israel had been.  The Jews then worked to establish settlements and to encourage Jewish pilgrims and refugees to come home.  In 1947, after the ethnic cleansing that the Jews suffered during World War II, the Jewish settlers appealed to the United Nations for statehood and recognition by the International Community.

On November 29, 1947, with the UN divided on the matter (which required a 2/3 majority vote for passage), the Philippines relented to pressure from the United States and cast the deciding vote in favor, and Israel for all practical purposes was recognized by the UN.

{Editor’s Note:  We present the UN vote as an EPIC FAIL of large scale “democracy by proxy,” and again make the case for small scale democratic systems left to operate in a large scale anarchic environment, which would allow peace to prosper as the small scale systems tacitly work towards the stalemates presented in “The Strategy of Conflict“, which is a discussion for another day.}

On May 15, 1948, when the British Mandate in Palestine officially expired, the predominantly Arab countries surrounding Israel attacked her and were repelled.  It could be said that hostilities in the region have continued on and off ever since.  Naturally, the Arab States refuse to recognize Israel’s existence to this day, and the situation in Palestine may be the most marked example of how the simple drawing of border lines has caused ceaseless bloodshed and heartache for those involved, with the ultimate losers being the inhabitants of what is today understood to be Palestine, those lands in Palestine which are not part of the Jewish state.  These refugees were evacuated from their lands by the Arab states with the promise of inhabiting all of Palestine once the Jewish state was eliminated, and are now held hostage, in a sense, by both the Arab states and Israel.

We now fast forward from what undoubtedly is a biased History lesson to the present situation and, again more importantly, what is likely to occur.

The Present Dynamic

In the most recent escalation in hostilities, which began on November 15, 2012, both Hamas and Israel have continued their mutual assaults despite rumors that a cease fire is being negotiated by Egypt.  To summarize recent events, a number of short and medium range rockets, amongst them the Fajr-5, which has now been used to target both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, have been launched from the Gaza strip at Israeli population centers.

In response, Israel has called up reserves and is preparing a force of roughly 100,000 for a ground assault into Gaza, with the goal of neutralizing the longer range threat that the Fajr-5 presents.

Even casual observers will note that 100,000 troops is quite a bit of manpower, in fact, it exceeds the number of troops that the US currently has deployed in Afghanistan.  Why would Israel, which should hold a clear technical advantage over its adversaries (leading many observers to sympathize with the Palestinians, a phenomenon known as “Underdogma” made famous by Michael Prell), call up so much firepower to deal with Gaza?  One response is the prospect of prolonged urban warfare in Gaza City, where a portion of the Hamas rocket cache may be located.

Speculation on possible outcomes

However, given the timing of the Israeli response, just weeks after the US Presidential elections, it is just as likely that Israel is using the current conflict as a launch pad towards a unilateral operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and eliminate what Israel sees as its most urgent existential threat.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, more than alluded to this in his September speech at the United Nations as he all but called for an invasion of Iran.  With the re election of the Obama administration in the US, historically Israel’s closest ally, Netanyahu understands that the US is likely to stay on the sidelines in the near future and is taking the Iranian matter into his own hands.

Nadeem Walayat, the clairvoyant analyst at The Market Oracle, speculates that the ground campaign in Gaza is the first phase of a three phase operation.  In order to attack Iran with minimal civilian casualties, Israel must first remove the threat of short and medium range rocket attacks by Iranian proxies on its population centers as such attacks would immediately begin were Israel to immediately attack Iran.

According to Walayat, Israel would attack Gaza and then Hezbollah in Lebanon, hoping to seal up these theaters of conflict before launching what by any account would be a risky assault on Iran.  Either Iran is desperately close to developing a nuclear weapon, or Netanyahu is desperately seeking reelection.  Whatever the motive, it should be clear that Israel is intent on dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities and that they view the present circumstances in the region give them the best opportunity for success, meaning neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program with limited fallout in the region or beyond.

Another part of the regional dynamic which is may greatly aid or hurt the Israeli strategy, depending upon how it plays out, is the conflict in Syria.  The protracted conflict in Syria has caused Hezbollah to conserve rockets and other armaments which they would otherwise train on Israel in anticipation of a possible civil war breaking out in Lebanon.  The recent international recognition of the Syrian opposition has only increased this threat.

At this point, Hezbollah could just as easily be drawn into deeply into a conflict in Lebanon as it could be in Israel.  The current state of events in Syria favors the Israeli plan, if indeed Mr. Walayat is correct.  However, should Israel be drawn into a protracted operation in Gaza, Hezbollah could choose to strike the Israelis first and open up a second front, which would begin to stretch Israel’s armed forces and slow their strategy which, in order to be successful, must be carried out in a matter of months.

Another wildcard in a situation that is full of them is that the recent spillover from Syria into Turkey has the potential to draw German troops and NATO assets into the theater.

Against this backdrop, Washington DC is panicking (as a result of having no strategy in the Middle East) and has dispatched Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to bring the big brother (or sister, as it were) element into the mix.

Clinton, along with Egyptian officials, will attempt to broker a ceasefire between Israel, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which, according to Stratfor, is in control of at least some of the Fajr-5 rocket cache in Gaza.

The most recent report from Stratfor on the matter indicates that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas will negotiate together.  The key demand of Israel is the grounding and confiscation of rockets in Gaza to neutralize the threat.  If this can be achieved via a Cease fire, which would likely mean Israeli or even US involvement overseeing the removal of the weapons and preventing further rockets from entering Gaza, Israel will have achieved its objective and a ground assault into Gaza would be unnecessary.

If this is the outcome, expect Israel to concentrate both diplomatic and military efforts on the Iranian threat and ignore Hezbollah, as they will perceive that the US has their back, both literally and figuratively.

If, on the other hand, the Egyptians insist on assuming the role of policing the rocket removal and preventing shipments, a condition that Israel is unlikely to agree to, we anticipate that Israel will proceed with their ground assault into Gaza.

Here at The Mint, half the world away, we hope for the best.  Perhaps the militants in Gaza will throw their rockets into the sea, and both Iran and Israel dismantle their respective nuclear programs.  Seeing this example, all of humanity will immediately lay down their weapons, dismantle their nukes, and sing kumbaya.  Anything is possible if those involved engage in IMMEDIATE FORGIVENESS and begin to live by the Golden Rule.

As this seems unlikely, we must all prepare for the worst, a middle east conflict launched in the name of self defense, which draws all of the world’s powers once again into armed conflict.

In the words of Jesse Ventura, “Nobody likes to see that…nobody.”

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 20, 2012

Copper Price per Lb: $3.49
Oil Price per Barrel:  $87.11
Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.43
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.66%
FED Target Rate:  0.16%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,728 THE GOLD RUSH IS ON!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,789
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,458,800,000,000 LOTS OF DOUGH ON THE STREET!
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,333,800,000,000

Escalation of Hostilities in Gaza as Israel prepares a ground campaign

11/15/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

While politicians and bureaucrats in the US continue to posture and dig up dirt on one another in an attempt to place the blame on the “other guys” as the US goes off the Fiscal Cliff, something entirely more important is unfolding half a world away.

What happens in the Middle East is important for a variety of reasons, and it is important to pray for the peace of Jerusalem, not only for Jerusalem’s sake, but so that there will also be peace in our hearts.  We must leave pondering this truth for another time as we endeavor to bring you the latest on the events developing in the Holy Land, namely the recent escalation of hostilities between Hamas and Israel.

As always, Stratfor is on the case, providing on the ground intelligence and analysis to help the layman understand what is occurring, why it is important, and most importantly, what is likely to occur as a result.  Without further adieu, we turn to “Considering an Israeli Ground Assault in Gaza,” an insightful report, republished here with permission of Stratfor:

Considering an Israeli Ground Assault in Gaza

The Israeli air force continues to bombard targets within the Gaza Strip, but thus far ground forces have not yet begun an incursion into the territory. Whether the current air campaign escalates to a ground assault will largely depend on the mission that the Israeli military is trying to accomplish.

Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Gaza border on Nov. 15
Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

Israel Defense Forces’ official statements have emphasized that the goal is the severe degradation of Gaza militants’ ability to launch rocket strikes, particularly the new Fajr-5 rockets that are purportedly capable of striking Tel Aviv. Halting rocket attacks was also the mission during Operation Cast Lead, Israel’s most recent large-scale military operation involving Gaza, which took place in late 2008 and early 2009 and consisted of an air campaign similar to the current one followed by a ground invasion. Examining how Operation Cast Lead developed could provide useful context for how an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza could unfold.

Analysis

Operation Cast Lead can be separated into two distinct phases: air and ground. The air phase lasted for about one week and targeted suspected rocket smuggling routes, storage locations and firing positions, as well as targets of opportunity that emerged as hostilities progressed. This is very similar to what the IDF is doing currently, primarily with air assets but also assisted by naval and land assets capable of attacking from a distance.

The second phase was the ground attack. This phase consisted primarily of two distinct geographic theaters within Gaza. In the southern theater, Israeli units moved in and set up blocking positions near Rafah and Highway 4 in order to cut Hamas’ logistical supply lines running north toward Gaza City. Air and naval strikes were also used to enforce the border between Gaza and Egypt, where a strategically significant road known as the Philadelphi route is located. In the north, Israeli forces penetrated into the Gaza Strip to the north, northeast and slightly southeast of Gaza City itself. This served to isolate Gaza City and clear out initial rocket firing positions as well as defensive positions located in the immediate rural regions. After this initial move, follow-on forces were brought in to thoroughly search and clear identified enemy rocket launching sites, logistical hubs and command and control structures. Notably, Israeli forces did not venture deep into major population centers such as Gaza City and Rafah City to avoid the potentially higher casualties and more serious infrastructural damage associated with urban combat.

Gaza

A ground operation now would likely look very similar to Cast Lead in design and tactics, since Cast Lead was considered an operational success and its mission was similar to the current one. However, there are two notable differences. First, in the southern theater during Cast Lead, Egyptian security forces worked to secure the Rafah crossing from their end and allowed Israeli forces to engage the Philadelphi route. Egypt now has a very different government, which brings into question its willingness to support a ground operation. Cairo has already announced that the Rafah Crossing will remain open. This creates an even more serious imperative for Israeli units to cut the supply lines in the south of the Gaza Strip to Gaza City. Israeli ground forces may need to physically occupy the Egypt-Gaza border because naval strikes and airstrikes may not accomplish the mission. This would be a slight expansion on the action taken in 2008-2009 and could bring Israeli forces into uncomfortably close contact with Egyptian forces.

Second, in the north, the potential range of the Fajr-5 missile expands the potential firing zone that needs to be cleared. As stated earlier, Cast Lead focused on Gaza City and its surrounding areas in clearing operations. In order to degrade militants’ abilities to reach Tel Aviv with the Fajr-5’s expanded range, the IDF will need to clear all potential firing areas to just south of Nusayrat. In theory, this would require the isolation of a larger area and the potential use of more forces or require more time to accomplish.

Visit our Israel page for related analysis, videos, situation reports and maps.

Tactically, IDF troops entered the Gaza Strip during Cast Lead by operating at night and creating their own crossing points as opposed to using previously established points. They also relied heavily upon combat engineers, armored construction equipment including unmanned D9 bulldozers, and dog teams to establish their own avenues of approach instead of using common routes through Gaza. Ground units also worked in heavy conjunction with air assets for reconnaissance and close air support, and had access to comprehensive artillery support. This allowed them to avoid improvised explosive devices, heavily mined primary access routes, ambushes and counterattacks militants had planned near the assumed IDF approaches.

In a likely ground incursion, we can expect IDF to use similar tactics that have been refined even further over the past four years, but we must assume that militants in Gaza will not make the same mistakes twice and will use different tactics in order to inflict more damage on ground forces. Already in this round of fighting, unconfirmed reports have emerged saying that militants are using MANPADS. If these rumors are true, it could force a more limited role for rotary-wing air support as well as anti-tank guided missiles and thus seriously hamper the firepower, cover and protection provided by armor.

Many of the conditions, geographic settings and stated goals of the current mission are similar to Operation Cast Lead, so one can assume that the potential upcoming ground phase would be similar as well. That being said, some differences have emerged that would likely force an expanded role for ground forces, and the mission stays the same only until the first exchanges of fire happen, as militants and other political actors would also be able to influence how events unfold. With the evolution of the battle, a ground operation is becoming increasingly likely and with the transition to the ground phase of operations casualties, tensions, and political ramifications will only intensify.

It is worth reiterating that Egypt has a completely different government than the one which was friendly to the Israeli cause during their 2008-2009 operations.  Iran’s further isolation also make it likely to engage on some level against Israel if and when the ground offensive begins.

Again, pray for the peace of Jerusalem, Gaza, and all of Palestine, for hostilities there can throw the entire world out of balance.  If you need proof, just watch the Western stock markets react as events unfold.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 15, 2012

Copper Price per Lb: $3.46
Oil Price per Barrel:  $84.50
Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.21
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.59%
FED Target Rate:  0.16%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,716 THE GOLD RUSH IS ON!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,542
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,458,800,000,000 LOTS OF DOUGH ON THE STREET!
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,333,800,000,000

The Egyptian Election and the Arab Spring | Stratfor

On how Westerners have misintepreted the Arab Spring uprisings using the example of recent Egyptian elections, from Stratfor:

The Egyptian Election and the Arab Spring