Tag Archives: Strategic Oil Reserve

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 24, 2011

Today’s Call: 10 year US Treasury Bond yield to fall (price to rise). Currently 2.87%.

Rationale: Even though there will soon be a heightened risk of default by the US, moves such as releasing oil from the strategic reserve will give reason to believe that the US will make good on its obligations.  With the debt ceiling talks stuck on taxes, soon demand for Treasuries will overwhelm supply.  US Banks still reinvest in Treasuries and will likely continue to be obligated to do so.

Result of Call for June 21, 2011: US Dollar Index to fall.  Was 74.61, Currently 75.63. Bad Call.

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 31, Bad Calls: 26, Batting .544

Key Indicators for Friday, June 24, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel:  $91.16 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.70 MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.87%
FED Target Rate:  0.08% UH OH!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,502 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,935
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,895,400,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,086,900,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 23, 2011

Today’s Call:  Nymex Crude Oil to rise.  Currently $91.92.

Rationale:  Oil was oversold today on the announcement to release 60 million gallons of oil into the global supply from strategic reserves with 30 million gallons coming from the United States reserve.  The 60 million gallons does not even represent one day’s worth of global oil consumption.  In other words, this is a token announcement.  The world has more of a money supply problem than an oil supply problem.  Both are policy problems which will not be soon resolved.  These problems will keep the price of oil in dollar terms on an upward trajectory.

Result of Call for June 20, 2011:  JPMorgan to fall.  Was $40.48., Currently $40.20.  Good Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 31, Bad Calls: 25, Batting .553

Key Indicators for Thursday, June 23, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.05
Oil Price per Barrel:  $91.92 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.80   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.91%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,521 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,050
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,895,400,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,086,900,000,000 YIKES!!!

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.