Category Archives: 72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 10, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 11,952.

Rationale:  Assumption that the plunge protection team will move over the weekend to prop up the Dow, a widely watched stock market indicator.

Result of Call for June 7, 2011:  NY Crude Future Oil to rise.  Was $98.42, Currently $99.29.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 28, Bad Calls: 19, Batting .596

Key Indicators for Friday, June 10, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.02
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.29

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.87
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.97%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,532

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,952
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 9, 2011

Today’s Call:  July Corn Price Per Bushel to rise.  Currently $7.85-4.

Rationale:  USDA Report released today revealed the expected corn surplus to be 23% less than already low expectations.  This will cause tremendous price pressure up and down the food chain.  Corn is to food production what oil is to manufacturing.  As such, we have decided to add it to our Key indicators.

Result of Call for June 6, 2011:  Bank of America (BAC) to rise.  Was $10.83, Currently $10.65.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 27, Bad Calls: 19, Batting .587

Key Indicators for Thursday, June 9, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.09
Oil Price per Barrel:  $101.86

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.85
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.00%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,544

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,124
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 8, 2011

Today’s Call: Yield on 10yr US Treasury bond to fall (price to rise).  Currently 2.962%.
Rationale: China warned today that a US default would be very harmful to many nations of the world, most of all China.  While we believe that the US will eventually default, in the short term this type of news should be traded against.  Short term safe haven buying will overwhelm any selling on this news.
Result of Call for June 3, 2011: Caterpillar (CAT) to fall.  Was $101.10, Currently $97.91.  Good Call.
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 27, Bad Calls: 18, Batting .600

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 8, 2011

FED Target Rate:  0.09% FED IN DESPERATION MODE!!!!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25% INFLATION HERE WE COME!!!!

*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 7, 2011

Today’s Call:  NY Crude Oil to rise.  Currently $98.42.

Rationale:  Stocks of Oil tanker transporters are turning slightly higher which generally leads to an increase in the spot price of oil.  This, combined with the effects of Bernanke’s market soothing words today should push commodity prices more than stock prices.  This is the new trend, fresh money is moving into higher commodity prices which will eventually erode stock prices on a relative basis.

Result of Call for June 2, 2011:  10yr Bond Yield to fall (price to rise).  Currently 3.064%, Currently 3.042%.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 26, Bad Calls: 18, Batting .591

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 6, 2011

Today’s Call:  Bank of America (BAC) to rise.  Currently $10.83

Rationale:  Banks, of which Bank of America, being the largest consumer bank, is an indicator, had some very bad press today as far at their prospects.  While we believe that in the long run these stocks are nearly worthless, B of A is likely to rise in the face of such negative sentiment.

Result of Call for June 1, 2011:  Greek 5-YR Sovereign Credit Default Swap to fall.  Was 1608.50, Currently 1390.97.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 25, Bad Calls: 18, Batting .581

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 3, 2011

Today’s Call:  Caterpillar (CAT) to fall.  Currently $101.10

Rationale:  Caterpillar has risen dramatically over the past year.  The sudden downturn in economic indicators and commodity prices will mute demand for its products which will reflect in a share price that drifts quietly downwards through the summer months.

Result of Call for May 31, 2011:  GSG Commodity Index to rise.  Was $36.38, Currently $36.05.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 24, Bad Calls: 18, Batting .571

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 2, 2011

Today’s Call:  10yr Bond Yield to fall (price to rise).  Currently 3.064%

Rationale – Duplicating our call from three days ago for a different reason.  Moody’s today threatened today to downgrade the US Government’s Debt rating citing their inability to act on the debt ceiling.  Not surprisingly, Moody’s simultaneously warned some of the largest domestic holders of US Government Debt, namely Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi of possible downgrades of their debt as well.  In the absence of another round of quantitative easing, the FED is now using a scare tactic to push money out of the Treasury markets and into riskier assets.  It will fail as the flight to safety that is to come will overwhelm it.

Result of Call for May 27, 2011:  10yr Bond Yield to fall (price to rise).  Was 3.064%, Currently 3.03%.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 24, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .585

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 1, 2011

Today’s Call:  Greek 5-YR Sovereign Credit Default Swap to fall.  Currently 1608.50.

Rationale – Announcement of new bailout fund for Greece to occur shortly.  Greece and any other sovereign nation will be bailed out in various fashions in a frantic attempt to avoid a default.  A sovereign default would mean the beginning of the end of the currency regime and the regime will do everything in its power, no matter how illogical, to avoid it.

Result of Call for May 26, 2011:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall.  Was 12,402, Currently 12,290.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 23, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .575

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 31, 2011

Today’s Call:  GSG Commodity Index to rise.  Currently $36.38.

Rationale – Renewed flight to out of financial assets to acquire tangible goods due to continued uncertainty.

Result of Call for May 25, 2011:  Euro to fall vs. USD.  Was $1.4076:1€, Currently $1.4282:1€.  Bad Call.  We are coming to the conclusion that the USD/EUR rate may be impossible to call on a short term basis.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .564

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 27, 2011

Today’s Call:  US 10yr Bond Yield to fall (price to rise).  Currently 3.064%. 

Rationale:  Contagion in Sovereign debt markets to initially benefit US Bonds as safe harbor.

Result of Call for May 24, 2011:  Copper price to Fall.  Was $4.00 / lb, Currently $4.16.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 16, Batting .579

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 26, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall. Currently 12,402.

Rationale:  Dow rose today on mostly bearish news.  Ripe for a selloff.  Key Dow financials components are being seen as weak. Combination of selling and stronger dollar to lower Dow.

Result of Call for May 23, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 76.14, Currently 75.57. Bad Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 15, Batting .594

72 Hour Call, Gold

72 Hour Call for May 25, 2011

Today’s Call:  Euro to fall vs. USD.  Currently $1.4076:1€

Rationale – Speculation of Greece exiting Euro, which in the long run should strengthen the Euro, to initially cause concern about durability of currency union.  Euro holders to buy dollars until storm settles.

Result of Call for May 20, 2011:  Gold to Rise.  Was $1,514.70, Currently $1,525.90.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .611

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 24, 2011

Today’s Call:  Copper price to Fall.  Currently $4.00 / lb

Rationale – Copper is currently in a large oversupply and with news of a European Debt Crisis and a further slowing economy copper will continue a slow trend downwards.

Result of Call for May 19, 2011:  Linkedin Corporation to Fall.  Was $104.25. Currently $94.45.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 21, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .600

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 23, 2011

Today’s Call:  USD Index to rise.  Currently 76.14.

Rationale:  Sell-offs in stocks and money fleeing the Eurozone to initially land in US Dollar accounts.

Result of Call for May 18, 2011:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall).  Was 3.165%. Currently 3.134%.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 20, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .588

72 Hour Call, Gold

72 Hour Call for May 20, 2011

Today’s Call: Gold to Rise.  Currently $1,514.70.

Rationale – Issuance of Google Bonds simply to lock in low yields seen as sign that inflation will pick up, indirectly lifting gold.

Result of Call for May 17, 2011: July Corn to Rise. Was $7.20 per bushel. Currently $7.58. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 20, Bad Calls: 13, Batting .606

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 19, 2011

Today’s Call:  Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) to Fall.  Currently $104.25.

Rationale – Linkedin IPO has rocketed on its debut today without anyone shorting it or selling put options, allowing private equity and day traders to cash out on the way up.

Result of Call for May 16, 2011:  Euro vs USD to fall.  Was $1.41104:1. Currently $1.42512:1.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 13, Batting .594

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 18, 2011

Today’s Call:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall).  Currently 3.165%.

Rationale – Combination of selling related to end of QE2 purchases and uncertainty around debt ceiling, along with strengthening recovery in US raising inflation expectations to drive money out of Treasuries.

Result of Call for May 13, 2011:  USD Index fall.  Was 75.73. Currently 75.30.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .613