Category Archives: The Mint

72 Hour Call for May 31, 2011

Today’s Call:  GSG Commodity Index to rise.  Currently $36.38.

Rationale – Renewed flight to out of financial assets to acquire tangible goods due to continued uncertainty.

Result of Call for May 25, 2011:  Euro to fall vs. USD.  Was $1.4076:1€, Currently $1.4282:1€.  Bad Call.  We are coming to the conclusion that the USD/EUR rate may be impossible to call on a short term basis.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .564

72 Hour Call for May 27, 2011

Today’s Call:  US 10yr Bond Yield to fall (price to rise).  Currently 3.064%

Rationale:  Contagion in Sovereign debt markets to initially benefit US Bonds as safe harbor.

Result of Call for May 24, 2011:  Copper price to Fall.  Was $4.00 / lb, Currently $4.16.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 16, Batting .579

Grants for Democracy? It’s Getting Ugly in Spain, US Housing Capitulates, Greek Government to Default on Austerity and then Simply Default

5/27/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We’ve said it before, things are beginning to happen at a rapid pace and the authorities are absolutely and completely helpless to do anything about it.  Not for lack of money, have you, for they are second in line behind the banks to pick at the money tree.  No, the authorities lack the one thing that is indispensable to getting things done.  Credibility.

Have things improved for you, fellow taxpayer?  Unless you are a banker, lobbyist, are a contractor who works for a banker or lobbyist, the answer is probably no.

And we haven’t even begun to talk “austerity” on US shores.

But first, we are obligated to take a peek at what the G-8 is doing.  We suspect we know but it is important to confirm ones suspicions.

From the Associated Press:

DEAUVILLE, France (AP) — Rich countries and international lenders are aiming to provide $40 billion in funding for Arab nations trying to establish true democracies, officials said at a Group of Eight summit Friday.

Officials didn’t fully detail the sources of the money, or how it would be used, but the thrust was clearly to underpin democracy in Egypt and Tunisia — where huge public uprisings ousted autocratic regimes this year — and put pressure on repressive rulers in Syria and Libya.

We suspected more aid to someone but this appears even more misguided than we thought.  The first line of the second paragraph is especially laughable but you can see where this is going.  We speculated Wednesday about the events in Palestine getting ready to take center stage, largely as a distraction to the “utter and complete collapse” of the world’s current financial system.

The G-8 is now throwing what is left of their credibility into extending their influence in the Middle East.  They have Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Egypt and Tunisia as footholds.  Will they be strong enough to hang on to this newfound influence?  Only time will tell if the new regimes can be bribed as easily as the old ones.

The credibility of the Western Governments and their worn out welfare state economic models is nearly spent.  In Greece, the IMF / Eurozone bailout participants are finding out that the Greek politicians don’t have the collective stomach to play the repo man on their countrymen’s future.

It appears that the government is refusing more austerity measures and is rethinking whether or not this whole Euro adventure is such a good idea.  Failure to agree now places the spotlight on the IMF / Eurozone plunge protection team.  Will they have the stomach to let Greece default?

The gauntlet has been thrown down, and what happens to Greece will set the tone for how the inevitable sovereign defaults of the Western Governments are likely to play out.  Are the Greeks the Lehman Brothers of Sovereigns?

On the other side of the world, Japan’s sovereign debt was officially downgraded as if to underscore the fact that the world monetary system is hurtling towards a catastrophic failure.

Back in Europe, a sequel to the Greek experience is now playing itself out across the Mediterranean Sea on the Iberian Peninsula.  The youth in Spain are finally arising as they clearly see that the politicians have shamelessly “handed their future” to the nation’s banks.

With protests in nearly every major city, their resolve grows with every passing day.  In Barcelona, one day before Barça plays for the Champions Cup against Manchester, the authorities attempted to clear Plaça Catalunya to clean it in anticipation of the celebrations that would surely take place there when Barça, led by the great Liionel Messi, wins the cup.

With over 100 persons injured between protestors and police officers, they will now have to clean up blood in the square.  The Spanish authorities, not unlike their western peers, just don’t get it.  The old way of doing things is over, fini.  The youth are taking matters into their own hands.  With 45% of the Spanish youth unemployed, their sheer numbers, if they stay at it, will simply overwhelm the authorities.

All the same, we are pulling for Barça tomorrow.

A final piece of news to share with you here at The Mint, the US Housing Market has finally capitulated. In other words, it is now safe to buy a house.  The hope that the US Government and Central Bank could somehow revive this market has left town on the same train as the US Government’s credibility.

The US Government lost its credibility most recently as it continues to bicker over meaningless spending cuts as the nation thunders towards an imminent default on its sovereign debt and by affirming the Unconstitutional Patriot Act, which essentially gave legislative authority for the US to become the wards of an international police state.

The brave souls who gave their lives to create and protect a free America must be rolling over in their graves this Memorial Day.

Will there be a generation brave enough to reclaim it?

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email:  davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  Please check out our latest 72 Hour Call at www.davidmint.com

Key Indicators for Friday, May 27th, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.16
Oil Price per Barrel:  $100.74

10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  3.06%
FED Target Rate:  0.09% FED IN DESPERATION MODE!!!!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,537

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25% INFLATION HERE WE COME!!!!
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,441
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,892,800,000,000 THE CRACK-UP BOOM BEGINS!!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,036,600,000,000 MORE FUEL FOR THE CRACK-UP BOOM!!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call for May 26, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall. Currently 12,402.

Rationale:  Dow rose today on mostly bearish news.  Ripe for a selloff.  Key Dow financials components are being seen as weak. Combination of selling and stronger dollar to lower Dow.

Result of Call for May 23, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 76.14, Currently 75.57. Bad Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 15, Batting .594

72 Hour Call for May 25, 2011

Today’s Call:  Euro to fall vs. USD.  Currently $1.4076:1€

Rationale – Speculation of Greece exiting Euro, which in the long run should strengthen the Euro, to initially cause concern about durability of currency union.  Euro holders to buy dollars until storm settles.

Result of Call for May 20, 2011:  Gold to Rise.  Was $1,514.70, Currently $1,525.90.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .611

72 Hour Call for May 24, 2011

Today’s Call:  Copper price to Fall.  Currently $4.00 / lb

Rationale – Copper is currently in a large oversupply and with news of a European Debt Crisis and a further slowing economy copper will continue a slow trend downwards.

Result of Call for May 19, 2011:  Linkedin Corporation to Fall.  Was $104.25. Currently $94.45.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 21, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .600

72 Hour Call for May 23, 2011

Today’s Call:  USD Index to rise.  Currently 76.14.

Rationale:  Sell-offs in stocks and money fleeing the Eurozone to initially land in US Dollar accounts.

Result of Call for May 18, 2011:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall).  Was 3.165%. Currently 3.134%.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 20, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .588

72 Hour Call for May 20, 2011

Today’s Call: Gold to Rise.  Currently $1,514.70.

Rationale – Issuance of Google Bonds simply to lock in low yields seen as sign that inflation will pick up, indirectly lifting gold.

Result of Call for May 17, 2011: July Corn to Rise. Was $7.20 per bushel. Currently $7.58. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 20, Bad Calls: 13, Batting .606

72 Hour Call for May 19, 2011

Today’s Call:  Linkedin Corporation (LNKD) to Fall.  Currently $104.25.

Rationale – Linkedin IPO has rocketed on its debut today without anyone shorting it or selling put options, allowing private equity and day traders to cash out on the way up.

Result of Call for May 16, 2011:  Euro vs USD to fall.  Was $1.41104:1. Currently $1.42512:1.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 13, Batting .594

72 Hour Call for May 18, 2011

Today’s Call:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall).  Currently 3.165%.

Rationale – Combination of selling related to end of QE2 purchases and uncertainty around debt ceiling, along with strengthening recovery in US raising inflation expectations to drive money out of Treasuries.

Result of Call for May 13, 2011:  USD Index fall.  Was 75.73. Currently 75.30.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .613

72 Hour Call for May 17, 2011

Today’s Call:  July Corn to Rise.  Currently $7.20 per bushel.

Rationale – Combined effect of continued inflation pressures and closure of ports due to Mississippi flooding.

Result of Call for May 12, 2011:  10 Yr Bond Yield to Fall (Price to Rise).  Was 3.221%. Currently 3.121%.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 18, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .600

72 Hour Call for May 16, 2011

Today’s Call:  Euro vs USD to fall.  Currently $1.41104:1.

Rationale – IMF Chief’s arrest to temporarily cause sell-off of Euro due to Greek bailout uncertainty.

Result of Call for May 11, 2011:  Jones Industrial Average to Rise.  Was 12,630. Currently 12,548.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 17, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .586

72 Hour Call for May 13, 2011

Today’s Call:  USD Index fall.  Currently 75.73.

Rationale – Today’s Headline news generally positive for the Dollar, anticipate sell off, exiting of dollar positions.

Result of Call for May 10, 2011:  Citigroup (C) to fall. Was $44.20. Currently $41.83.  Good Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 17, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .607

72 Hour Call for May 12, 2011

Today’s Call: 10 Yr Bond Yield to Fall (Price to Rise). Currently 3.228%.

Rationale – Congressional Showdown on Debt Ceiling to temporarily restrict supply of Treasury issues causing anticipation temporary increase in premiums.

Result of Call for May 9, 2011: British Pound to rise vs. USD. Was $1.64 ($1.6362):1. Currently $1.6393:1. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 16, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .592

72 Hour Call for May 11, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to Rise. Currently 12,630.

Rationale – Selloff in stocks today will cause plunge protection team to intervene.

Result of Call for May 6, 2011: USD to rise vs. Euro. Was 0.6981. Currently .7044. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 15, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .577

72 Hour Call for May 10, 2011

Today’s Call: Citigroup (C) to fall. Currently $44.20.

Rationale – Citigroup announce a 10 for 1 reverse stock split over the weekend which became news today. Reverse stock splits to prop up per share prices are a desperate and meaningless move by a corporation to make it more attractive.

Result of Call for May 5, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 73.96, Currently 74.55. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 14, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .560

72 Hour Call for May 9, 2011

Today’s Call: British Pound to rise vs. USD. Currently $1.64:1.

Rationale – Natural Disasters in Japan, Emerging Fiscal Disasters in Eurozone and US Debt ceiling stall to quietly drive Pound purchases extending May trend.

Result of Call for May 4, 2011: S&P 500 Index to rise. Was 1,347.32 (taken mid-day, adjusted to closing price), Currently 1,346.29. Bad Call (Just barely).

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 13, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .541