Rationale – Renewed flight to out of financial assets to acquire tangible goods due to continued uncertainty.
Result of Call for May 25, 2011: Euro to fall vs. USD. Was $1.4076:1€, Currently $1.4282:1€. Bad Call. We are coming to the conclusion that the USD/EUR rate may be impossible to call on a short term basis.
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 17, Batting .564
We’ve said it before, things are beginning to happen at a rapid pace and the authorities are absolutely and completely helpless to do anything about it. Not for lack of money, have you, for they are second in line behind the banks to pick at the money tree. No, the authorities lack the one thing that is indispensable to getting things done. Credibility.
Have things improved for you, fellow taxpayer? Unless you are a banker, lobbyist, are a contractor who works for a banker or lobbyist, the answer is probably no.
And we haven’t even begun to talk “austerity” on US shores.
But first, we are obligated to take a peek at what the G-8 is doing. We suspect we know but it is important to confirm ones suspicions.
From the Associated Press:
DEAUVILLE, France (AP) — Rich countries and international lenders are aiming to provide $40 billion in funding for Arab nations trying to establish true democracies, officials said at a Group of Eight summit Friday.
Officials didn’t fully detail the sources of the money, or how it would be used, but the thrust was clearly to underpin democracy in Egypt and Tunisia — where huge public uprisings ousted autocratic regimes this year — and put pressure on repressive rulers in Syria and Libya.
We suspected more aid to someone but this appears even more misguided than we thought. The first line of the second paragraph is especially laughable but you can see where this is going. We speculated Wednesday about the events in Palestine getting ready to take center stage, largely as a distraction to the “utter and complete collapse” of the world’s current financial system.
The G-8 is now throwing what is left of their credibility into extending their influence in the Middle East. They have Iraq, Afghanistan, and now Egypt and Tunisia as footholds. Will they be strong enough to hang on to this newfound influence? Only time will tell if the new regimes can be bribed as easily as the old ones.
The credibility of the Western Governments and their worn out welfare state economic models is nearly spent. In Greece, the IMF / Eurozone bailout participants are finding out that the Greek politicians don’t have the collective stomach to play the repo man on their countrymen’s future.
It appears that the government is refusing more austerity measures and is rethinking whether or not this whole Euro adventure is such a good idea. Failure to agree now places the spotlight on the IMF / Eurozone plunge protection team. Will they have the stomach to let Greece default?
The gauntlet has been thrown down, and what happens to Greece will set the tone for how the inevitable sovereign defaults of the Western Governments are likely to play out. Are the Greeks the Lehman Brothers of Sovereigns?
Back in Europe, a sequel to the Greek experience is now playing itself out across the Mediterranean Sea on the Iberian Peninsula. The youth in Spain are finally arising as they clearly see that the politicians have shamelessly “handed their future” to the nation’s banks.
With protests in nearly every major city, their resolve grows with every passing day. In Barcelona, one day before Barça plays for the Champions Cup against Manchester, the authorities attempted to clear Plaça Catalunya to clean it in anticipation of the celebrations that would surely take place there when Barça, led by the great Liionel Messi, wins the cup.
With over 100 persons injured between protestors and police officers, they will now have to clean up blood in the square. The Spanish authorities, not unlike their western peers, just don’t get it. The old way of doing things is over, fini. The youth are taking matters into their own hands. With 45% of the Spanish youth unemployed, their sheer numbers, if they stay at it, will simply overwhelm the authorities.
A final piece of news to share with you here at The Mint, the US Housing Market has finally capitulated. In other words, it is now safe to buy a house. The hope that the US Government and Central Bank could somehow revive this market has left town on the same train as the US Government’s credibility.
The US Government lost its credibility most recently as it continues to bicker over meaningless spending cuts as the nation thunders towards an imminent default on its sovereign debt and by affirming the Unconstitutional Patriot Act, which essentially gave legislative authority for the US to become the wards of an international police state.
The brave souls who gave their lives to create and protect a free America must be rolling over in their graves this Memorial Day.
Will there be a generation brave enough to reclaim it?
*See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog. This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy. This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.
Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall. Currently 12,402.
Rationale: Dow rose today on mostly bearish news. Ripe for a selloff. Key Dow financials components are being seen as weak. Combination of selling and stronger dollar to lower Dow.
Result of Call for May 23, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 76.14, Currently 75.57. Bad Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 15, Batting .594
Rationale – Speculation of Greece exiting Euro, which in the long run should strengthen the Euro, to initially cause concern about durability of currency union. Euro holders to buy dollars until storm settles.
Result of Call for May 20, 2011: Gold to Rise. Was $1,514.70, Currently $1,525.90. Good Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 22, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .611
Rationale – Copper is currently in a large oversupply and with news of a European Debt Crisis and a further slowing economy copper will continue a slow trend downwards.
Result of Call for May 19, 2011: Linkedin Corporation to Fall. Was $104.25. Currently $94.45. Good Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 21, Bad Calls: 14, Batting .600
Rationale – Linkedin IPO has rocketed on its debut today without anyone shorting it or selling put options, allowing private equity and day traders to cash out on the way up.
Result of Call for May 16, 2011: Euro vs USD to fall. Was $1.41104:1. Currently $1.42512:1. Bad Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 13, Batting .594
Today’s Call: 10 Yr Bond Yield to Rise (Price to fall). Currently 3.165%.
Rationale – Combination of selling related to end of QE2 purchases and uncertainty around debt ceiling, along with strengthening recovery in US raising inflation expectations to drive money out of Treasuries.
Result of Call for May 13, 2011: USD Index fall. Was 75.73. Currently 75.30. Good Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 19, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .613
Today’s Call: 10 Yr Bond Yield to Fall (Price to Rise). Currently 3.228%.
Rationale – Congressional Showdown on Debt Ceiling to temporarily restrict supply of Treasury issues causing anticipation temporary increase in premiums.
Result of Call for May 9, 2011: British Pound to rise vs. USD. Was $1.64 ($1.6362):1. Currently $1.6393:1. Good Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 16, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .592
Rationale – Citigroup announce a 10 for 1 reverse stock split over the weekend which became news today. Reverse stock splits to prop up per share prices are a desperate and meaningless move by a corporation to make it more attractive.
Result of Call for May 5, 2011: USD Index to rise. Was 73.96, Currently 74.55. Good Call
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 14, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .560
Today’s Call: British Pound to rise vs. USD. Currently $1.64:1.
Rationale – Natural Disasters in Japan, Emerging Fiscal Disasters in Eurozone and US Debt ceiling stall to quietly drive Pound purchases extending May trend.
Result of Call for May 4, 2011: S&P 500 Index to rise. Was 1,347.32 (taken mid-day, adjusted to closing price), Currently 1,346.29. Bad Call (Just barely).
Calls to Date: Good Calls: 13, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .541
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