Tag Archives: DJIA

Economics, The Mint

The FED Kicks the Downward Dow, and Whiffs!

 

8/9/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

 

Something extraordinary happened today.  The FED, one day after the worst stock market crash in the series of stock market crashes to which we are doomed until the problem of too much debt is dealt with, came out and announced that it would hold overnight rates under 0.25% for at least two more years.

This is the ultimate stimulus measure, money will continue to be free, let the final stage of the mad scramble for resources begin.  With this statement, the FED has confirmed that the currency will be destroyed.  Plan accordingly!

We saw a chart at the Wall Street Journal site today which was entitled “Downward Dow.”  The name hearkens to the canine/yoga position better seen that described:

A Canine demostrates the new Dow pattern that is forming for the next two years

The FED sees what is going on and is taking a long, running, Charlie Brown style kick at the Downward Dow before it.  Unfortunately for us all, like Charlie Brown, Ben and the gang are going to whiff on the Dow, which is more likely to lie down than resume its forward gait, and pull a hamstring in the process.

In other words, the FED, with today’s statement, has severely injured itself and will do nothing more now than sit on the sidelines and hand out free money.  With Congress paralyzed, the helicopters (the FED member banks) will be in charge of dropping the money on the populace.

Helicopter Phase is here!

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 9, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.97
Oil Price per Barrel:  $79.75

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.78  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.33%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,750 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  10,826  TO THE MOON!!!

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,012,200,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,226,100,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 22, 2011

Today’s Call:  Yield on 10 US Treasury to fall, price to rise.  Currently 2.99%.

Rationale:  The combination of the FED downgrading the economic assessment and announcing no further stimulus along with no clear progress on the debt ceiling will cause, paradoxically, talk of a fiscal stimulus package so that authorities can claim to be “doing something.”  Problems in Greece will cause most funds to repurchase US Treasuries by default to stay away from the Euro.

Result of Call for June 17, 2011:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Was 12,004, Currently 12,163.  Good Call.

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 30, Bad Calls: 25, Batting .545

Key Indicators for Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.10
Oil Price per Barrel:  $95.06 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.07   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.99%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,549 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,163
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 17, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 12,004.

Rationale:  Despite the fact that there is simply no good news or reason to buy stocks right now, the increases in the M2 Monetary base generally go into the stock market first.  The only question is whether or not it will overwhelm the shorts.  Our guess is that in 72 hours it will.

Result of Call for June 14, 2011:  US Dollar Index to fall.  Was 74.44, Currently 75.02.  Bad Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 29, Bad Calls: 23, Batting .558

Key Indicators for Friday, June 17, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.11
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.01 A FAILURE TO INFLATE

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.00   MONETARY POLICY IS NOT WORKING
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.94%
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  FED IN PERMANENT DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,540 BENEFITING FROM PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,004
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,921,900,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,084,400,000,000 YIKES!!!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for June 10, 2011

Today’s Call:  Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise.  Currently 11,952.

Rationale:  Assumption that the plunge protection team will move over the weekend to prop up the Dow, a widely watched stock market indicator.

Result of Call for June 7, 2011:  NY Crude Future Oil to rise.  Was $98.42, Currently $99.29.  Good Call. 

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 28, Bad Calls: 19, Batting .596

Key Indicators for Friday, June 10, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.02
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.29

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.87
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.97%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  FED STILL IN DESPERATION MODE

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,532

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.25%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.4%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,952
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,022,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,005,800,000,000 STARTING TO DRY UP?  NOT!

 *See FED Perceived Economic Effect Rate Chart at bottom of blog.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 16, 2011

Today’s Call:  Euro vs USD to fall.  Currently $1.41104:1.

Rationale – IMF Chief’s arrest to temporarily cause sell-off of Euro due to Greek bailout uncertainty.

Result of Call for May 11, 2011:  Jones Industrial Average to Rise.  Was 12,630. Currently 12,548.  Bad Call

Calls to Date:  Good Calls: 17, Bad Calls: 12, Batting .586

72 Hour Call

72 Hour Call for May 11, 2011

Today’s Call: Dow Jones Industrial Average to Rise. Currently 12,630.

Rationale – Selloff in stocks today will cause plunge protection team to intervene.

Result of Call for May 6, 2011: USD to rise vs. Euro. Was 0.6981. Currently .7044. Good Call

Calls to Date: Good Calls: 15, Bad Calls: 11, Batting .577