Tag Archives: European economic government

The Three Ring Circus Begins

10/25/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday, it appeared that the authorities had most of the problems that ail the world’s economy resolved.  All they needed was a little more time, money and cooperation to implement their plans and the good times would be rolling once again!  Today, instead of coordinated, determined action, it appears that a three ring circus of sorts is beginning.

In Ring 1, we have the European Clown Car:  Yesterday, Europe looked ready to announce a plan to simultaneously solve the sovereign debt, banking, and resultant currency crises in one fell swoop.  Today, it appears that Italy is balking at implementing a growth plan on moment’s notice and Germany and France will need a miracle to announce a credible Pan-European rescue package by tomorrow, their self imposed deadline.  What a difference a day makes!

It should be clear by now to most sober persons that regardless of what is announced tomorrow, the Euro as a currency in its present form is not viable.  It should also be clear that the countries who have adopted the Euro will give away what is left of their sovereignty in a vain attempt to preserve it.

Step Right Up! The Three Ring Economic Circus Begins

In Ring 2, we have the American Elephants:  The US is quietly completing three Bond auctions that will cause the national debt higher than the national GDP.  The official total should eclipse GDP by the end of October.  100% of GDP is when the debt of a mere mortal nation (Greece, for example) has traditionally harkened national bankruptcy.

The only exception to this rule is in Ring 3, the Japanese Tight Rope Walker: Japan, where national debt is north of 200% of GDP.  How do they avoid bankruptcy?  Simple, they print money to pay the debt.  As if to prove our point, today, the Bank of Japan decided that they have seen enough Yen appreciation and announced another five trillion Yen currency printing campaign.

When money doesn’t exist, the sky is the limit, which is why commodities and certain equities are set to explode to the upside.  Bonds, while they may not fall in nominal value, will fall in relative value as they are repaid in severely depreciated currencies.

As if on cue, commodities took off today.  How high and far they will fly this time is anyone’s guess.

As the circus gets underway, the sober amongst us are beginning to wonder, sometimes aloud, “if the Governments, banks, and monetary authorities cannot solve these problems, then who can?”

The answer, fellow taxpayer, is right under our fingertips.  We, the People of the earth can solve it.  The tool we have been given is our own wit and ingenuity.  The only requirement is that we embrace True Capitalism, for better or for worse, for richer or poorer, until death do us part.

What is True Capitalism?  It may be summed up as a deep, radical respect for life, liberty, and private property.  It is an understanding that mutual cooperation is more often than not in our rightly understood interests (to use a Mises term).  It is not simply a choice, it is the only choice.  More to come.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for October 25, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.41
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.17

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.51  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.13%

FED Target Rate:  0.07%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,705 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,707  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,056,000,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,570,500,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

The Move to a European Government, Caesar can keep his money!

8/16/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

The markets seem to be enjoying a relative calm after the record setting volatility they experienced last week.  It turns out that one would have hit a home run by buying the VIX as the debt ceiling debate was dragging on.  We’ll keep that recommendation tucked away for a later date as the conditions which created last week’s tremors still exist and continue to intensify.

A headline caught our eye today, from BloombergGerman, French leaders propose European ‘economic government’

This caught our eye because it is further confirmation of what we have long suspected here at The Mint.  Specifically that giving up the right to coin currency (seigniorage) essentially means giving up a nation’s sovereignty.  Any sort of puppet government may be set up to give the appearance of sovereignty.  They may even give the people the right to vote for their own government.  No matter how the government is chosen, the puppet will move in accordance with the way its strings are pulled.

In practice, the monetary authority becomes the sovereign.

We have further speculated that the current sovereign debt crisis in Europe would serve to erode the sovereignty of the governments being bailed out.  It now appears that even wise users of the Euro, such as Germany and the Netherlands, will have to give up the illusion of budgetary authority to save the currency.  Think of it as guilt by association.

What happens next in Europe will be the true test of the Euro’s ability to exist.  Can Greeks and Spaniards manage finances to German standards?  Can they alter their production and consumption patterns to the German standard?  If the answer is yes, then we will have confirmation that a shared fiat currency (and by default fiscal policy) is all that it takes to break down borders and achieve world peace.
If the answer is no, then the Euro, the latest entrant in a long line of doomed experiments in fiat currencies is…doomed.

The leaders in the Eurozone are dealing with a problem that has no solution.  What is unfortunate is that they are taking a considerable amount of time and other people’s money in a vain attempt to solve it. 

The problem is simple enough.  A fiat currency, such as the Euro, is a faith based currency.  One needs faith that the currency will maintain its value and continue to be accepted in trade.  The bedrock of this currency faith is that credits must be created which are repayable in the currency.  This gives people, who naturally want to improve their circumstances by attending to the most urgently felt need, the incentive to productively trade in the currency.

If the currency is something tangible and can be produced in sufficient quantities, this is all that is required for something to be accepted as currency in society.  Production and circulation of the currency would occur organically as the needs of the economy dictated.

The Euro’s faith based currency is doomed

 

On the other hand, if the currency is a fiat, faith based currency, such as the Euro, much heinous effort is required for it to be accepted as currency.  The first requirement is a decree that all taxes must be remitted in the fiat currency.  This is what Jesus referred to when he told the spies of the Chief Priests to “give to Caesar what is Caesar’s and give to the Lord what is the Lord.”

Once it is decreed that taxes will be remitted in the fiat currency, the fiat currency must be produced in sufficient quantities without the guidance of the free market signals (known today as monetary policy).  Finally, the system of taxation and redistribution of the tax revenue (known today as fiscal policy) must be perceived as either inconsequential or fair in order for those subjected to the fiat currency regime to continue to assent to using the currency.

The Eurozone’s incurable ailment is that its single monetary policy cannot respond to the multitude of fiscal policies that are operating in the currency zone.  If the currency were tangible, production in the economy would properly adjust and fiscal policy would be less pervasive and dictated by reality.  But because the Euro is simply a faith based currency, fiscal and monetary policy have no chance of harmonizing themselves.

The Euro is doomed and its handlers must at least suspect it by now.  Their only hope is to quickly form a unified fiscal government in the Eurozone which is what in theory they are doing.  In practice this may be nearly impossible.

The US Dollar faces a similar problem which has been slower to manifest itself because its problem is on a global scale.

As Jesus said, the fiat authority only owns the coins, scraps of paper, or electronic bits that consist of money.  True ownership of real things, and especially people, ultimately is the Lord’s.

How important this simple teaching will be in the years to come.

Stay tuned, Trust Jesus, and Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 16, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.99
Oil Price per Barrel:  $87.14

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.14
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.21%

FED Target Rate:  0.10%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,787 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,406  TO THE MOON!!!

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,140,300,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,404,000,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!