Tag Archives: hyperinflation

August and Everything After All Over Again

9/23/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Most persons in the financial industry, and likely beyond may recall that a mere five years ago, the Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy filing rocked the financial markets and served as the official notice that the blind 25 basis point hikes in the FED target rate that had passed as “monetary policy” during the go-go years of the early 2000’s were not exactly what the economy ordered.

In a matter of months, an entire industry that had been operating in a nearly infallible uptrend since the early 1970’s began to retool itself to cope with significant downside risk.

The Lehman event took place on September 15th and, while it did not exactly catch the US Treasury and the FED off guard, it did catch them without the resources or authority to do anything about it.  As Phillip Swagel details in this piece “Why Lehman Wasn’t Rescued,”:

“Lehman failed before TARP was passed or even proposed to the Congress. This meant that the Treasury Department had no legal authority to put government money into the firm or provide a guarantee for its obligations. This changed with the passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Bill on Oct. 3, 2008, which provided $700 billion in TARP financing to be used to purchase troubled assets (used in the end mostly to purchase preferred shares in banks).”

Swagel goes on to state that the cases of both Bear Stearns and AIG, whose subsequent bailouts caused Lehman stakeholders, amongst others, to cry foul, differed on one very significant count:

“To all eyes, the problem at Lehman was one of solvency while the issue in the other two cases was liquidity. The Fed’s actions on Bear and A.I.G. were thus appropriate in its role as a lender of last resort and the same with its caution at Lehman.”

And so began the cascade of minifailures which have become collectively known as the Financial Crisis of 2008, as liquidity was provided to the solvent while the insolvent went quickly into history’s dustbin.

At The Mint, we refer to this odd period of time as “August and Everything After,” with apologies to the Counting Crows.  It was a time when the industry threw in the towel, and the prevailing current became one of loss avoidance.

Today, just over 5 years later, we believe that we are at a similar inflection point with regards to tendencies in the financial markets, hence our tagline “August and Everything After All Over Again,” only this time, the tremendous risks in the financial system are not on the downside, where everyone is looking for them, they are on the upside, where few dare to tread.

The few who have tread confidently on the upside risks, despite the commonly held beliefs to the contrary, would have nearly tripled their money by doing something as mindless as going long the Dow circa March 2009, when it appeared the Dow companies themselves were to be swallowed up.

At this point in time, the upside risks are hidden from most.  While the stock market continues to churn out an impressive performance, a more significant trend has been playing out in plain sight:  Private investment activity is going through the roof.

While publicly traded equities get nearly all of the airtime, it is becoming clear that the advantages of being a publicly traded company are being outweighed by the regulatory burden and incredible scrutiny that public companies are under.  To sum up the plight of public companies circa 2013, they are easy targets.

The answer for many has been to “go private,” and go private they have, from Ford to Blackberry, companies that once basked in the public limelight have found that going private may be just what the doctor ordered.

To accentuate this trend, today is the day that a key provision of the JOBS act takes effect, allowing private companies and startups to solicit accredited investors publicly rather than needlessly lurking about in the shadows as they had done since the days of the Great Depression.

The Role of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, in direct violation of Natural Law
The Federal Reserve, in direct violation of Natural Law

FED observers watched in near disbelief last week as the US Central Bank declined to “Taper,” which means to scale back the amount of money that they simply print and hand to holders of US Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities, citing downside risks.

In observing the FED, we can confirm that the economy currently faces unimaginable upside risks, as they are paradoxically always the last to react to market realities which they have unwittiningly created.

The FED and their observers labor under a belief that is both accurate and woefully misguided all at once.  It is true that the Federal Reserve, in regulating short term interest rates and the base money supply, has nearly unchecked influence on the level of economic activity anywhere that dollars are used in exchange.  This is a simple reality of the insane “debt is money” monetary system that the world suffers under.  The primary issuer of the debt determines how much money there is.

They are wrong in thinking that the FED is clairvoyant in any sense of the word and can somehow time their interventions to achieve desired effects on the underlying economy.  In this sense, the FED is always the last to react as it has no idea what the true timing of the cause and effect of their policy decisions are.  While they have produced reams of academic work to prove their theories, in practice, it is nothing more than guesswork with the benefit of hindsight.

This is also why the FED will only “taper” when nobody cares whether or not they taper, i.e. when there is so much money flooding the system that the dangers are clearly on the side of hyperinflation.  Inflation, in their mind, is much easier to fight than the deflationary spiral the the Lehman event triggered five short years ago.

They are right in the sense that in a hyperinflationary environment, the monetary system simply needs less juice, where a deflationary environment threatens their stranglehold on the world’s monetary system.

To understand the depth of the incompetence of the FED and Central Bankers at large, one need only look to their latest hero, Michael Woodford.  Mr. Woodford wrote a book titled “Interest and Prices:  Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy” in which he deals with problems of zero bound rates and quantitative easing, ideas that were being toyed with back in 2003 when the book was published as mere theory.  Now, they are part of a Central Banker’s everyday life, and Woodford’s book is considered their bible.

The base of Woodford’s theory, which we have come to know as “foreword guidance,” is that when monetary policy is accommodating maximum liquidity and the system still lacks it, policy makers must resort to telling market participants what they will do, essentially tying their hands in the future, in order for liquidity to exceed its theoretical limits.  This is the only reason why Ben Bernanke now holds a press conference after FED policy meetings, so that this theory can be implemented.

Woodford’s theory of Foreword Guidance, like Quantitative easing, is further evidence that the current monetary system has failed.  It has failed in the sense that even unlimited amounts of debt masquerading as money cannot satiate the need for liquidity in global markets, which are so disconnected from actual physical conditions that it is impossible to tell which projects are a net benefit to humankind and which take humankind further down the path to fantasyland, where all play and no work promises a lot of pain and scarcity down the line.

The risk in the “After August” period is to the upside, and central bank notes will become irrelevant as the global economy goes into overdrive and a new monetary system will be tacitly agreed upon by all participants.

When the Central Bankers of the world look up from Woodford’s textbook, they may catch a glimpse as the Tsunami of liquidity washes their currencies away.

The FED has nearly doubled the base money since 2008, are re you ready for it to multiply?

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus!

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for September 23, 2013

Copper Price per Lb: $3.27
Oil Price per Barrel:  $103.40
Corn Price per Bushel:  $4.53
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.71%
Mt Gox Bitcoin price in US:  $133.43
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,322
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.3%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  15,401
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,469,100,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,783,000,000,000

Rockaway Beach, Jaca, and the illusion of Market Homeostasis

11/29/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We are back from a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday spent with family in lovely Rockaway Beach, Oregon.  Rockaway Beach is a gem of a town on the Oregon coast which straddles Rock Creek as it descends from the Coastal Range and violently collides with the Pacific Ocean.

We were fortunate to awake each morning with a front row seat to this raging battle.  At low tide, the creek appeared to make headway as it made its final run into the great unknown.  The beach was immense and inviting, and seagulls roamed the sands to find what the sea had left behind as an appetizer.

At high tide, the sea was angry.  The creek’s advances were violently thrust back again and again as the full weight of the Pacific came in against it.  The beach and its inhabitants disappeared and we were glad to be looking down on the raging waves from the third floor of the townhouse.

We now understand why navigating the mouth of the Columbia River was a fool’s game for centuries.

The central Oregon coast is unique.  It is never quite warm enough, no matter what time of year one visits, to be a suitable substitute for the tropics.  Nor is it ever quite cool enough to be easily categorized as Nordic.  It permanently exists in a state somewhere between these two extremes.

The State of Oregon declared the entire coast a state highway in 1913 and affirmed the beaches as public lands via passage of the Oregon Beach Bill in 1967.  These two actions have kept the coast both accessible to the public and in generally pristine condition. 

Essentially, these are no private beaches in Oregon   For this, we are grateful, as the coast may be one of the most peaceful and photogenic places on the planet.

Rockaway Beach
Sunset at Rockaway Beach

Our time in sleepy Rockaway Beach was pleasant.  Apart from seven miles of coastline, the town has a park and a number of antique and craft dealers.  On Friday evening we were treated to the annual town Christmas tree decorating and lighting ceremony along with an old fashioned sing-a-long led by the school choir.

Rockaway Beach
A Family enjoys the sunset at Rockaway Beach, Oregon

Songbooks and cookies were passed around and the choir took requests from the crowd.  The last time we experienced such an expression of civic merry making was in the mountain town of Jaca in Aragon.  As we arrived in Jaca, it was dark and persons were flocking to the green in front of the Castle of San Pedro.  They appeared to jump at our car as if from nowhere.

Once settled in to our accommodations, we joined them and were invited to a sing-a-long in the early autumn evening in the Spanish Pyrenees.  But that is a story for another day.  We are having a hard enough time returning from our vacation bliss.  If we reminisce on our time in Spain we may be on permanent vacation.

Homeostasis?

We love the word homeostasis.  It is a complicated way of saying that an organism, or in our case, an economic system, is in balance, in touch with its inner Chi.  We think of a frog sitting on a log, slowly breathing.  Perhaps it is an image burned into our minds by a biology text we once read.  Whatever images the word conjures in your mind, fellow taxpayer, it is unlikely to trigger a flight or fight response.

We seem to have returned from the raging coastline to a market which appears to have achieved a sort of homeostasis.  The rise and fall of equities, many times over 200 points a day as measured by the Dow, should evoke a fight of flight response from market participants.  Yet now commentators and participants barely blink an eye at such moves. 

After trillions of dollars of stimulus, dozens of government bailouts and guarantees, and collectively learning to think the unthinkable, the market must finally be achieving equilibrium, right?

Oh fellow taxpayer, if only it were true.  Unfortunately, the very perception that the market may be at homeostasis may be the indication that we are at an intermission before the dramatic final act of the play in which we all find ourselves unwilling participants, gets underway.

In the final act, the sovereign debt debacle that first appeared in Greece and is now enveloping France and perhaps Germany finds its way across the ocean to the United States of America.  At that point, the US will succeed where Europe, until now, has failed.

As the financial world trains its binoculars on the equity and bond market indicators, they will continue to declare that all is well, the homeostasis that the American authorities so desire will appear to have been achieved.  US bond yields will remain steady and the equity indices will steadily rise.  Even housing may begin to march forward after its long slumber.

No, the US will not default in the traditional way, as Europe is on the verge of doing.  In fact, perceptive fellow taxpayers will quickly point out that the US has been in the process of defaulting for some time now via quantitative easing (QE).

In markets as in a biological system, all of the actors are always pursuing a state of homeostasis.  Yet the rub of homeostasis is that it is impossible to achieve by unilateral force.  It is something that must collectively be achieved.  It is something that only Anarchy, the absence of the State, can bring about.

The final act of this play will be the ultimate display of unilateral force.  In an increasingly desperate attempt to keep bond and equity indices steady, the Federal Reserve will lose control of the currency in what historians will call a hyperinflationary blow off.

Then modern Central Banking, Western Governments, the warfare/welfare state, and all of its grotesque machinations will take a bow and exit stage left…or they will jump off the stage and attack the crowd.

Come to think of it, we may just leave after this intermission.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 29, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.38
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.34

Corn Price per Bushel:  $5.98  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.00%

FED Target Rate:  0.08%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,715 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,556  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,095,600,000,000 RED ALERT!!!  THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,664,500,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

The FED draws on its RRP Revolvers; Inflation solves the National Budget crisis and crushes the poor

11/8/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than output” – Milton Friedman

Today we came across evidence that the massive amounts of money created out of thin air may no longer be benignly parked at the Federal Reserve.  From Lee Adler at the wallstreetexaminer.com:

“The Fed was hit with withdrawals of $83.3 billion last Wednesday, the largest withdrawals from its deposit accounts that were not associated with quarterly tax payments since February of 2009…The Fed was apparently forced to take extraordinary measures to fund these withdrawals. These included the outright sale of nearly $24 billion in its Treasury note and bond holdings from the System Open Market Account. As a result, the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) fell to $2.611 trillion, some $43 billion below the Fed’s stated target of $2.654 trillion.”

Mr. Adler goes on to state that in order to meet these withdrawls, the FED had to borrow $43 billion from foreign central banks through “Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRPs)”.  In a sense, the FED had to make the equivalent of a good old fashioned margin call that foreign central banks had to scramble to make good on.

Could this be the reason that Italian Bonds yields are surging and the ECB cut rates unexpectedly last week?

Could this be the reason that the BoJ had to expand its Yen debasement program to the tune of 5 trillion yen?

Ever since the FED opened swap lines with foreign central banks, it has generally been the FED lending money to the foreign banks to assure liquidity.  In this unexpected turn, the FED had to call in some of those loans to meet its own liquidity needs.

The FED is forced to draw on its RRP Revolvers

Could this be the first of what history will call a “Central Bank Run”?  Only time will tell, but we would expect the FED to announce another, large scale dose of QE (Quantitative Easing) of its own in the next few weeks in an attempt to meet a similar event with fresh cash instead of a disruptive firing of its RRP revolvers.

In a way, this is the moment that the FED and all of the taxing authorities on the planet have been waiting for.  Inflation is a government’s best friend.  It allows the wealth destruction that these defense and welfare agencies engage in to continue while socializing the costs in a manner that is imperceptible to the untrained eye.

Even the Deficit Super Committee is onto this fact.  They are now discussing the use of the “Chained Consumer Price Index (CPI)” in place of the current CPI calculation for everything from Social Security COLAs to tax brackets to welfare qualification thresholds.  From AP:

“Just as 55 million Social Security recipients are about to get their first benefit increase in three years, Congress is looking at reducing future raises by adopting a new measure of inflation that also would increase taxes for most families –(with) the biggest impact falling on those with low incomes.

If adopted across the government, the inflation measure would have widespread ramifications. Future increases in veterans’ benefits and pensions for federal workers and military personnel would be smaller. And over time, fewer people would qualify for Medicaid, Head Start, food stamps, school lunch programs and home heating assistance than under the current measure.

Taxes would go up by $60 billion over the next decade because annual adjustments to the tax brackets would be smaller, resulting in more people jumping into higher tax brackets because their wages rose faster than the new inflation measure. Annual increases in the standard deduction and personal exemptions would become smaller.”

Do you see how it works, fellow taxpayer?  Inflation, combined with statistical shenanigans intended to mask it, is the magic pill for broken government finances.  It is no secret that the Government’s finances are a disaster, which is why we expect to inflation in generous doses.

How exactly does “Chained CPI” differ from the current CPI calculation?  The article goes on to explain:

“Many economists argue that the chained CPI is more accurate because it assumes that as prices increase, consumers switch to lower cost alternatives, reducing the amount of inflation they experience.

For example, if the price of beef increases while the price of pork does not, people will buy more pork. Or, as opponents mockingly argue, if the price of home heating oil goes up, people will turn down their heat and wear more sweaters.”

Are you laughing yet?  Perhaps crying?  Now listen to how the Government justifies it:

“A report by the Moment of Truth Project, a group formed to promote the deficit reduction package produced by President Barack Obama’s deficit commission late last year, supports a new inflation measure. “Rather than serving to raise taxes and cut benefits, switching to the chained CPI would simply be fulfilling the mission of properly adjusting for cost of living,” it argues.”

If you are not yet laughing, crying, or laughing to avoid crying, allow us to assist you.  What they are trying to say is that in the parallel universe in which the Government operates, the need to substitute more expensive goods for cheaper ones does not constitute a real loss of the purchasing power of the currency with which those goods are purchased.

After all, you can always put on a sweater, right?

Where the Government’s logic, and ultimately society, begins to break down is at the point when all prices, beef, pork, heating oil, and sweaters begin to rise astronomically in tandem with each other.  At that point, it becomes painfully obvious that the problem lies in the currency, not with the producers. 

Unfortunately, at that point, the Government will have long since vilified and persecuted speculators and producers for alleged price gouging to the point that the productive part of society, those who grow food and produce raw materials, will have completely ceased to produce and/or fled the country.  The subsequent lack of production will result in an increasingly scarce stock of real goods being quickly priced and re-priced in a currency which is produced at an incredible surplus.

In layman’s terms, these events will be summed up in the phrase “hyperinflation.”

If the FED has to draw once again on its RRP revolvers, it will be clear that the benign growth in the M2 money supply will have become malignant, and that hyperinflation will soon be in full bloom.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 8, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.54
Oil Price per Barrel:  $96.44

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.63  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.01%

FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,737 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,040  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!  THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!

M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Back from the Corn, Congress None the Wiser

7/27/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We are back from the corn fields and rest assured that despite the flooding on the Missouri, the corn and soy harvests look promising. 

Much to our surprise, the US Congress has not yet resolved its debt cieling standoff.  We have nothing to add other than this is either insanity in action or a blatant attempt to force money out of Treasuries and spark hyperinflation.  Given June’s negative CPI reading (which no thinking person should take seriously), we are beginning to think the latter is true.

We offer today’s Key Indicators for your perusal and enjoyment.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for July 27, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.41
Oil Price per Barrel:  $97.23

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.91  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.98%

FED Target Rate:  0.06%  JAPAN HERE WE COME!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,614 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,302  TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base:  $1,944,400,000,000
RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,092,700,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

 

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.

Bernanke fires up the Helicopters and Precious Metals Blast off!

7/13/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Today Bernanke went before the US Congress and gently laid down the gauntlet.  If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling soon (by August 2nd, we are told), it could have catastrophic effects on the economy

Given that nearly the entire banking system on the planet depends upon the US Treasury being Grade A debt, Mr. Bernanke may again be credited with the understatement of the year!

We pity Mr. Bernanke.  He is like a pilot flying an Airbus aircraft that is stalling at extremely high altitute.  We don’t know much about aircraft but we understand that Airbus aircraft, with their European design slant, do not give a pilot much freedom to override the plane’s automated systems.  It assumes that all of the necessary corrective actions can be pre-programmed and, if the plane begins to stall, the computers take over to attempt to correct the problem.

Actual Airbus pilots are free to dispute the merits of our oversimplification.  We just needed a metaphor.

Back to Bernanke, with the autopilot mechanism failing, the pilot does not know what to do.  If the US Congress had dutifully raised the debt ceiling as it had 94 times in the past, as the Airbus autopilot manual said it would, Bernanke’s reaction to the most recent US jobs report would have been to simply propose a third round of quantitative easing (read: money printing or counterfeiting of currency).

On the Airbus, he would get on the intercom and say “please fasten your seatbelts until we pass through this patch of rough air.”

However, the failure of the US Congress to reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling has thrown a wrench in his plans.  What is his plan now?  Think helicopters, Zimbabwe, Gideon Gono.

Mr. Bernanke is going on a safari!

Yes, fellow taxpayer, with each day that passes, it is becoming clearer to the majority that Mr. Bernanke is unwittingly following in the footsteps of none other than Gideon Gono.  Some may recall that Mr. Gono, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, was forced to “do extraordinary things that aren’t in the textbooks,” meaning that he oversaw the printing of large amounts of his country’s currency which produced an amazing modern example of hyperinflation.  

In an interview with Newsweek in early 2009, Gono offered an explanation for his actions and predicted that the US would do the same, as it has:

“I’ve been condemned by traditional economists who said that printing money is responsible for inflation. Out of the necessity to exist, to ensure my people survive, I had to find myself printing money. I found myself doing extraordinary things that aren’t in the textbooks. Then the IMF asked the U.S. to please print money. I began to see the whole world now in a mode of practicing what they have been saying I should not. I decided that God had been on my side and had come to vindicate me.”

The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe led to shortages of real goods and destroyed the economy.  Why would Mr. Bernanke’s experiment end any differently?

Meanwhile, over in the Eurozone, the Airbus is in rapid descent and everybody on the plane is offering ideas as to what went wrong and how to fix it.  Its auto-pilot has not been programmed to deal with the failures the plane is experiencing and as the pilots and passengers engage in a heated debate, none are able to grab the controls much less safely land the aircraft.

 it will not be long before impact and the smarter passengers are starting to grab for the parachutes made of Gold and Silver.  Gold closed up almost 1% to a record of $1,583 and Silver gained nearly 6% on the day.

Back in the US, whether or not Congress passes legislation to raise the debt ceiling is irrelevant.  The US Treasury will borrow and the FED will print even without Congressional approval.  That is what makes modern Government fun, if you don’t like a rule, just ignore it and claim that you were exercising “Leadership.”

All of the countries in the Eurozone will soon surrender their sovereignty to Germany and the IMF in exchange for the “privilege” of using Euro as currency.  The ideological divide that is being exposed in the US may eventually lead to civil war.

But these events may be small compared to what is occurring in the Middle East.  Iran opened its own international Crude Oil exchange today which is akin to declaring war on the western governments and banking interests.

And keep your eyes on Palestine.  The UN vote on Palestinian statehood in September is eerily similar to the vote 62 years ago when the UN accepted Israel as an independent state.  Our guess is that this vote will spark events there that will capture the attention of the whole world.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S. 

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Key Indicators for July 13, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.35
Oil Price per Barrel:  $97.83

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.26  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.89%
FED Target Rate:  0.07%  JAPAN HERE WE COME!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,582 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,492  TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,020,000,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,112,300,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.