Tag Archives: speculation

Gold, Politics, The Mint

On Debt Jubilees and the Fed’s Inflationary Crazy Train

2/21/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

It has been an exciting couple of days in the financial markets.  We almost can’t bear to watch.  From what little we can tell, the out-sized effects of short-term funds, which are jittery in nature, are determined to drive anyone who is taking a long view on the market mad.

Most of what passes as equity investing today is done with short-term funding provided by the Federal Reserve.  No matter how much propaganda the Fed puts out promising to maintain their QE programs in full force or keep the pedal to the metal on ZIRP, it is an inescapable fact that funds at many of the Primary Dealers are short-term and can be pulled by the Fed on a whim.

Lately, between the sequester threat and the Federal Reserve meeting notes which can only be described as anti-inflationary propaganda, the short-term funds have been taking flight.  How long this will last is anyone’s guess, but it is and always has been the Fed’s prerogative.  Whatever market participants anticipate that they will do with the regards to the money supply flashes through the equity markets, as equities are essentially on the margin of visible economic activity.

Today we wish to bring two things to the attention of our fellow taxpayers, unfortunately both of them are somewhat ominous.  They are nothing new, mind you, but as the warning signals of the next crisis and its probable outcome begin to appear on the horizon, we thought it best to keep interested readers informed.

First, Lee Adler over at the Wall Street Examiner, who performs a great service to the economic world by slicing through the economic propaganda to analyze the true data, shared this piece which is worthy of reading.  It explains how the mountains of customer deposits are piling up at Commercial banks.  If, and more probably when these deposits begin to be deployed in the real world, asset bubbles and inflation will begin to pop up in the US economy like lava flowing down the side of a volcano.

His article can be read here:

Bloomberg Reports Biggest Story of All Backwards As Fed Blows Dangerous Deposit Bubble

If Mr. Adler is correct, the Fed’s inflationary crazy train may be about to leave the station.

We are compelled to warn you that the next quote, from a piece by Jeff Neilson at www.gold-eagle.com, may be enough to make your blood boil if you are not one of the privileged classes (in other words, most of us) that he believes will likely benefit from the upcoming “Debt Jubilee,”

So what will our 21st century Debt Jubilee look like? With History’s most-corrupt governments, expect the most-corrupt “solution.” The debts of our governments, the Big Banks, and the wealthiest Oligarchs will be totally erased. We will be told they are doing this to “save us” from drowning in their (reckless/fraudulent) debts.

However, the Little People will face a somewhat different future. Their debts will be maintained at 100-cents-on-the-dollar. The bankers, politicians and Oligarchs (via their Corporate Media) will tell us that this is necessary to “protect the integrity of the System” (their System).

Think this level of perversity/injustice is impossible? We already have precedent. After the Wall Street banks had caused (created?) the Crash of ’08 (with their reckless fraud/gambling); and after they took their $15+ trillion from the U.S. government in assorted hand-outs, 0% loans, tax-breaks, and “loss guarantees” (i.e. more hand-outs); the Wall Street banksters kept their massive bonuses.

We were told this was because of “the sanctity of contracts.”

Then after this massive give-away; various U.S. governments began unilaterally hacking-and-slashing the wages, pensions, and benefits of their own workers – which had been freely/fairly negotiated in their own contracts. The reason? After giving $trillions to the bankers; the workers were told the government “couldn’t afford” to honor their contracts.

The sanctity of contracts is important, as all that men and women ultimately have in this world is their word.  Unfortunately for most of us, we may soon find out just how much the government’s word is worth.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for February 21, 2013

Copper Price per Lb: $3.55
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.03
Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.90
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.98%
FED Target Rate:  0.15%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,577 THE GOLD RUSH IS ON!
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.0%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  13,881
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,384,300,000,000 LOTS OF DOUGH ON THE STREET!
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,419,300,000,000

Economics, Gold, The Mint, True Capitalism

Natural Law: The Golden Rule

11/15/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We continue today with our brief examination of the foundations of society here at The Mint.  We are finding that while society appears complex on the surface, the further that its elements are reduced, the foundation is extremely, perhaps painfully simple.  Any complexity that we experience is not a product of an inherent complexity in natural laws, rather, it is a product of the human relationships and actions that are a result of man’s choice of response to the demands of natural law.

For those of you joining us for the first time, let us get you up to speed with a synopsis:

Anarchy, the lack of government, is man’s natural state.  It is an ultimate given.  It simply is.  A clear understanding of the current state of affairs depends upon grasping this inescapable fact.

In response to Anarchy, man has two choices.  He can choose to mutually cooperate with his fellow man, respecting both his fellow man’s right to live and his right to property, or He can choose to take his fellow man’s life and property through the use of force.  We have called the path of mutual cooperation “True Capitalism” and the path of forceful coercion “Might Makes Right.”

Ideologically, there is no middle ground between these two paths.  In practice, men live at various points on the spectrum between these two ideological extremes.

We argue that True Capitalism is the response which creates the greatest benefits for the greatest number of people.  The proof of the superiority of True Capitalism is that it allows man to best adapt and react to the inescapable demands of Natural Law.  Like Anarchy, Natural Law is immutable.  It does not change, for its statutes are etched in the foundations of the earth itself.

Last Thursday we presented the Natural Law of supply and demand, a law that deals with what is concrete and tangible.  Today we will deal with second law which primarily governs human relationships and works in conjunction with the law of supply and demand.

It is popularly called the Golden Rule.

The Golden Rule is articulated and exalted as an ideal in some form in nearly every society and religion on the planet.  The Bible famously articulates the Golden Rule in the following way:

“Love your neighbor as you love yourself” (Deuteronomy 6:5)

It is important to note that the Golden Rule is a positive declaration.  It is a call to action.  In many societies and religions the Golden Rule is stated in a negative declaration, a command to abstain from action.  An example of this can be found in Hinduism:

“One should never do that to another which one regards as injurious to one’s own self.”  (Anusasana Parva, Section CXIII, Verse 8 )

The negative declaration is sometimes called the Silver Rule.  It is important to understand that only the Golden Rule, the positive call to action, is Natural Law.  Observance of the Silver Rule, while highly advisable, does not rise to the level of Natural law.  However, it is a logical corollary to the Golden Rule.

Compliance with the Golden Rule, as with all natural law, is indispensible.  It is ignored at one’s peril, for it operates regardless of one’s acceptance of its validity or not.  The Truly Capitalistic society greatly facilitates and encourages compliance with the Golden Rule.  Conversely, compliance is hindered in a society that has embraced Might Makes Right as its ideological response to Anarchy.

“Wait a minute,” some of you are saying, “I’ll give you that the Golden Rule is a great ideal but Natural Law?  No one requires it of me, right?”

Remember, the essence of Natural law is that it is universally true and applicable to all.  The law of Supply and Demand, for example, can be ignored for a time, but every moment of ignorance causes the consequences of that ignorance to accumulate further until a final breaking point is reached.  The result of the failure to comply with the law of supply and demand is material scarcity and ultimately death.

The same is true of the Golden Rule.  Every moment of ignorance causes the consequences of that ignorance to accumulate further until a final breaking point is reached.  In the case of the Golden Rule, the result of the failure to comply is by definition a failure to properly comply with the law of supply and demand as well, with the end result, as mentioned above, being material scarcity and ultimately death.

Compliance with the Golden Rule is a necessary prerequisite to compliance with the law of supply and demand, for the Golden Rule governs relationships in the purest sense.  This is evident to most who have taken the time to ponder it.  So broad are the implications of the Golden Rule that the origins of both the rule of law and more recently the concept of human rights can be traced to it.

What thrusts the Golden Rule out of the realm of being simply a good idea and into the realm of Natural Law is this:  All attempts to comply with the Golden Rule serve to coordinate the actions of men in such a way that the greatest number of human needs are met in the most efficient way.  Any deviance from the Golden Rule, by definition, is a failure to meet human needs in the most efficient way.  Again, by definition, failure to meet human needs in the most efficient way means that a greater number of human needs are simply not being met.

Far from being simply a moral standard, the Golden Rule is elemental in the determination of supply and demand.  As the equilibrium price serves as the beacon of production for the law of supply and demand, the actions taken by men, governed by the Golden Rule, initially determine the supply and demand factors which, when combined, produce the equilibrium price.  In this sense, the Golden Rule serves as the beacon for both supply and demand which enable the creation of an initial equilibrium price.

How can the Golden Rule run ahead of the Law of Supply and Demand?  This is one of the beauties of Natural Law.  Natural Law always compliments and never contradicts itself.

An Example of the operation of the Golden Rule

Each human being has needs and wants which are sources of uneasiness.  Human Action, to paraphrase Von Mises, consists of men acting to dispel their most intensely felt uneasiness.  If a man is hungry, he will direct his actions towards getting something to eat.  Other tasks will be put on hold until this intensely felt uneasiness is relieved.

The operation of the Golden Rule, in the example of mans the need to alleviate hunger, operates in the following way.  A man feels hunger.  He has two options before him with which to fulfill this need.  First, he can forage, hunt, fish, or perform any series of actions with the end of fulfilling this need.  Second, he can voluntarily cede some of his production (or production for others via his contribution of labor) or appeal to the charity of someone else in return for something to eat.

As the second way is the most expedient, it is likely that a majority of people will elect this option.  Now reflect upon the Golden Rule:  “Love your neighbor as you love yourself.”  The person who chooses to comply with the Golden Rule will quickly understand that if he has the need to be fed, it is likely that his neighbor (in this sense, neighbor would mean anyone in the geographical realm in which he is equipped to serve, up to every person on the planet if it is possible for him to serve them) is likely to have the same need to some degree.  With this revelation, he unwittingly is on his way to discovering demand.

As he seeks to voluntarily fulfill this demand, he will need to either produce the supply of food himself or he can voluntarily cede some of his production (or production for others via his contribution of labor) or appeal to the charity of someone else in return for a supply of food with which to provide his neighbor with something to eat.  The information that his adherence to the Golden Rule provides him with regarding the needs of his fellow man will serve to guide his speculation as to where to best employ his limited time and capital.

It is a simple example, yet its simplicity serves to highlight the operation of the Golden Rule and can apply to any situation regardless of the complexity.  The Golden Rule, in modern business school lingo, is the origin of market research; it is the impulse for entrepreneurial activity and is the basis for subsequent human actions.

The Question of Charity

What about charity?  Wouldn’t adhering to the Golden Rule quickly lead to widespread scarcity and bankruptcy as catering to everyone’s preference to receive something for free would quickly deplete all available supplies and production?

The answer lies in the Golden Rule itself:  “Love your neighbor as you love yourself.”  Would you like to provide something for someone and not receive compensation?  Our guess is only if you are in a position to give something away and are willing to do it.  If all members of society are complying with the Golden Rule, the norms of charity will fall under the governance of the law of supply and demand.

The beauty, the perfection, of the Golden Rule is that above all it demands balance in human relationships and by extension, balance in the supply and demand of material goods.

True Capitalism Enable Compliance with the Golden Rule

True Capitalist ideology completely subjects itself completely to the Golden Rule and, in return, most accurately directs human actions towards fulfilling the most urgently felt needs of the greatest number of people. 

Inefficiency is naturally wrung from the system at its source as errors are quickly corrected and information is quickly disseminated via equilibrium prices.  The proper identification of demand by default leads to the most efficient allocation of scarce resources possible.  The liberty of life and property which is ensured in the Truly Capitalistic system allows men to supply this demand by employing their limited time and resources without unnecessary hindrance.

The Golden Rule may not provide everyone with what they expect or what they think they desire, but complete submission to it not only creates the most efficient allocation of resources, it gives humans the best information to base their attempts to mutually cooperate to fulfill the myriad of human desires.  It has the added social benefit of creating the greatest amount of harmony and goodwill possible in human relations.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 15, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.49
Oil Price per Barrel:  $99.39

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.45
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.06%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,781 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.0%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  12,096  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,215,000,000,000 RED ALERT!!!  THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,532,200,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Economics, Gold, Silver, The Mint

Natural Law: the transcendental importance of Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium Prices

2 Comments

11/10/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

As Europe continues to unravel, we have been exploring, perhaps by accident, the foundations of society here at The Mint.  In case you have missed it, here is a brief recap:

Anarchy, the lack of government, is man’s natural state.  It is an ultimate given.  It simply is.  A clear understanding of the current state of affairs depends upon grasping this inescapable fact.

In response to Anarchy, man has two choices.  He can choose to mutually cooperate with his fellow man, respecting both his fellow man’s right to live and his right to property or He can choose to take his fellow man’s life and property through the use of force.

In other words, man may choose the path of True Capitalism or Might Makes Right.  Ideologically, there is no middle ground.  In practice, men live at various points on the spectrum between these two extremes.

We have argued that True Capitalism is the response which creates the greatest benefits to society in terms of peace, security, capital accumulation and material prosperity while the ideology of Might Makes Right by definition is the antithesis of the Truly Capitalistic ideology and consequently would create the greatest detriment to society.

Ironically, all of the Nation States in existence derive their power from the adoption of the Might Makes Right ideology by a majority of the people.  How, then, can we be so certain that True Capitalism is the proper response to Anarchy if the majority has embraced Might Makes Right?

The proof of the superiority of True Capitalism is that it allows man to best adapt and react to the inescapable demands of Natural Law.  Like Anarchy, Natural Law is immutable.  It simply is.  Man is bound to it whether he chooses to recognize it or not.  It does not change, for Its statutes are etched in the foundations of the earth itself.

It is as Ayn Rand stated:  “You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.”

In our example, we take the reality that Rand refers to as Natural Law.  Natural Law may be ignored, but ignorance always comes at a price. 

The first of these Natural Laws is that of supply and demand.  The Law of supply and demand, simply stated, holds that supply of and demand for a good or service will tend to find a point of equilibrium at a certain price expressed in terms of money (the equilibrium price).  On a graph the relationship looks like this:

A Graphical Representation of Supply, Demand, and Equilibrium Price

In simple terms, it is a way of expressing what most people intuitively know.  When an item is increasing in price, one of two things is happening.  Either people are demanding more of the good or service or the supply of the item at the previous equilibrium price point is diminishing.

Naturally, the opposite is also true.  When an item is decreasing in price, one of two things is happening.  Either people are demanding less of the good or service or the supply of the item at the previous equilibrium price point is increasing.

In either case, the change in the price of the item in monetary terms is providing crucial information to all of those either producing or consuming the good or service in question, for it guides their inherent speculations.

(Editors Note:  Speculation, far from being an illegal or immoral activity, is essential to everyday survival and without it, there is no hope of achieving equilibrium prices and therefore both production and consumption tend to cease.  It is important to clarify that the illegal or immoral speculation that is villianized today is generally the act of investing the money of other parties in types of speculations without the knowledge or consent of the other party to do so.)

As a producer, if one sees the price of the good or service that one provides increase, the producer will strive (speculate, as it were) to either increase production to take advantage of the opportunity to profit and/or others will strive to produce the good or offer the service for which the price is increasing.

As a consumer, if one if one sees the price of the good or service that one consumes increase, the consumer will strive to either decrease consumption to mitigate the effects of the higher prices or others will strive to find a less expensive substitute for the good or service  to offer in the place of the good or service for which the price is increasing.

Stay focused, here comes the important part.  The increase in production will increase supply which, as the Natural Law of supply and demand dictates, will eventually lower the equilibrium price as the increase in demand is satisfied.  Likewise the decrease in demand will have the effect of increasing the available supply. 

In either case, the individual decisions (again, speculations, as it were) of the producers and consumers serve to increase the available supply.  The process occurs tacitly, and is an example of what Adam Smith famously called the Invisible hand of the market.

To further sum it up in what may seem at first a paradox, the best cure for higher prices is higher prices.

There are no exemptions from the natural law of supply and demand, however, there are numerous examples of Nation States, guided by the principal that Might Makes Right, manipulating the pure message that price is intended to send to producers and consumers.

This manipulation may be achieved in overt ways, such as price controls (the setting the price of an item by decree).  However, most people understand that price controls are bad, so today’s Nation States commonly resort to other tactics.  Amongst these tactics are taxes, subsidies, and the granting exclusive privileges to either buy or sell the good or service in question via regulating the purchase of or granting monopolies to produce it.

Regardless of the tactic employed, the result is to always a manipulation of the equilibrium price for a good or service and consequently distort the signal which guides the speculations and ultimately the actions of all producers and consumers.  The result of society as a whole is always and in every case achieving suboptimum results to those that would be achieved if the price signal were as pure as possible.

In the case of Central Banking and centralized currency control, the Nation State, in addition to the tinkering mentioned above, adds the complication of manipulating the currency that the equilibrium prices are expressed in.  This further distorts the sacred price signal that is universally relied upon to direct the actions of producers and consumers.

You can imagine the confusion occurring all around us, every day.

The True Capitalist ideology, on the other hand, completely subjects itself completely to the law of supply and demand and, in return, provides producers and consumers with best opportunity to obtain and act on the most accurate price information possible.

A Truly Capitalist society quickly settles on Gold and/or Silver as currency and does not recognize the right of anyone to tax, regulate, or grant monopolies. The Truly Capitalist Society continually works to bring supply and demand into balance in the simplest, most efficient way possible:  By relinquishing all control to the market participants and by extension, natural law.

Inefficiency is naturally wrung from the system as firms that depend upon the false price signals or special protections or subsidies provided under the Might Makes Right ideology quickly go out of business.

True Capitalism not only quickly eliminates economic waste, it quickly directs the surplus capital into its most urgently needed employ, and it is accomplished by simply obeying and embracing the natural law of supply and demand.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for November 10, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.39
Oil Price per Barrel:  $98.04

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.49
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.07%
FED Target Rate:  0.08%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,749 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,861  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!!  THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Economics, The Mint

Crash! The Mother of all Calls illustrated by Dave Kingman

8/4/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Today the Dow fell some 500 points.  Looking further, everything seemed to fall today.  We hope you have a good umbrella,  fellow taxpayer, it could be quite a storm.

Three noteworthy things seemed to have taken place in no particular order and for no apparent reason other than to unite to tank financial asset prices all over the globe, which is no small feat.  We will take them one by one.

First, overnight, the Japanese Central Bank intervened to prop up the dollar (or weaken the Yen, however you prefer to look at it).

Second, the world gave a collective thumbs down to the Eurozone’s “effort” to stabilize its bond markets.  The Euro Feds appear over matched in their currency union’s first true fidelity test.

This uncoordinated action led to the third event which we will call the “mother of all calls” on the US Dollar.  With short and long interest rates skipping around a zero as far as the eye can see, speculators have taken swings at the dollar like Dave Kingman at the 2-0 fastball.  The dollar is already sold short on an almost unimaginable scale.

Today, those speculators, ala Dave Kingman, whiffed and nearly fell over.  The only way this “mother of all calls” could be satisfied was for those short the dollar to quickly and injudiciously exit other positions.

This exiting injudiciously of  other positions is colloquially called a crash.

This crash, along with the foul smelling economic datacoming out of the US will give the Fed and Congress all the ammunition they need to launch both QE3 and any and every fiscal stimulus program they can dream up.

QE3 and fiscal stimulus on steroids will soon prove those speculators short the dollar right and the final, sordid chapter of the US Dollar’s history is about to begin!

Dave Kingman may have whiffed at the 2-0 fastball, but he has two more swings…

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for August 4, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.19
Oil Price per Barrel:  $85.60

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.93
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.46%
FED Target Rate:  0.12%  TIGHTENING?  NOT!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,649 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  -0.2%!!!  PULL OUT THE HELICOPTERS!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,384  TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,012,200,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,226,100,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart.  This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy.  This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.