11/6/2012 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
As we watch the US Presidential election unfold from the sidelines, the outcome which we predicted recently here at The Mint appears to be playing out nicely. So, who will win?
To answer this question, we have updated our October 23rd predictions based on what we presume to be better data, courtesy of Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University, with regards to anticipated voter turnout.
According to the data, we may assume a voter turnout of up to 65.49% of the total voting age population (VAP) in the US. Further, we assume that the presumed winner in our analysis musters an astonishing 58.8% of the popular vote, which by all measures would be considered such a resounding endorsement, one would think that the entire populace had spoken with one voice as to who should be our leader.
They would be wrong. Even with these generous assumptions, the Silent Majority still garners 39.6% of the vote versus the winner’s 35%. {Editor’s Note: We will provide a final update on this data set once the dust settles.} In a silent contrast to what will most certainly be a rousing victory speech by the winning candidate, the Silent Majority appears set to trample the President elect in a landslide victory of its own.
Unfortunately for those of us who count ourselves a part of the Silent Majority, our victory will be ignored, as it has been for the past 14 Presidential elections and for every election before 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower was triumphant.
Given that the Silent Majority will once again be ignored, we offer a bold prediction of what the next four years will hold:
1. An expansion of the US Military and police state.
2. An expansion of the US Government’s intrusion into the lives of its supposed subjects via a continued barrage of new rules and regulations.
3. The Federal deficit will continue to spiral out of control. Despite an onslaught of propaganda as to who should pay taxes, Federal tax revenue has remained in a tight range, between 14.4% and 20.6% of GDP ever since World War II. Even at the high end, tax revenues will not fund the $2.479 trillion worth of mandatory spending on entitlements and interest on existing debt for the coming year.
Once the confetti settles and cabinet appointments have been made and confirmed, Washington DC will quickly return to business as usual. We offer today’s stock market rally, which is largely a function of the US dollar being sent to the woodshed in the currency markets, as proof of this.
The financial markets care not who wins the election, they care that there is an election, and that the status quo be maintained. Unfortunately, the status quo is unsustainable, and events far beyond the control of the US President elect will determine America’s fate.
If you are a disgruntled voter whose candidate lost, or who, despite casting a vote for the winning candidate, is wearied by voting for change every four years and getting more of the same or worse, we welcome you into the Silent Majority. While we have no say in what happens in Washington DC, we deem this a happy state of affairs, for it is a land far away with concerns far different than our own.
Now, if we can only convince them to observe the Golden Rule…
Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.
Stay Fresh!
Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com
Key Indicators for November 6, 2012
Copper Price per Lb: $3.51
Oil Price per Barrel: $88.28
Corn Price per Bushel: $7.37
10 Yr US Treasury Bond: 1.74%
FED Target Rate: 0.17% ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,716 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 0.25%
Unemployment Rate: 7.9%
Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.6%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13,246
M1 Monetary Base: $2,394,100,000,000
M2 Monetary Base: $10,168,900,000,000
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