Tag Archives: Italy

A Happy Ending to the Euro 2012 and the Futility of European Elections

For the few who missed it, Spain handily defeated Italy yesterday, proving Moody’s wrong once again and making us 1-0 on Euro cup calls here at The Mint.  The Spanish national team, which has won each Euro and World Cup since 2008, will now go down as one of the greatest national teams of all time.

Spain downs Italy as The Mint goes 1-0 on its Euro 2012 prediction

The continent will now turn its weary eyes to the Olympic games, while those who can afford it prepare for their constitutionally guaranteed summer vacation (no kidding, the EU high court has held it as such).

Unfortunately for footballers and vacationers alike, Europe is operating in a perpetual crisis mode, and it is possible that vacationers will return to a Europe that is quite different than the one they left just 30 days before.  One in which their options are limited and their ATM card doesn’t work.

Yes, what started as a minor Hellenic financial problem has predictibly mushroomed into a political crisis at the highest level of the EU.  Voters, fed up with the bailout/austerity approach to banker welfare, increasingly exercise what is left of their sovereign right to vote out relative conservatives and/or moderates and vote in technocrats and/or populists as their fearless leaders.

Here is another prediction, for what its worth, the populists take Germany in the fall of 2013, Europe’s version of Mega Maid will have turned all the way from suck to blow.   The path of austerity that they are currently on will be but a faint memory as the ECB and policy makers move from bailing out the bankers to bailing out any and every political ally.

{Editor’s note:  A populist, for our purposes, is a socialist who no longer masquerades as a conservative or moderate, they are out of the closet, as it were.}

Yet for all the drama and human suffering that is unfolding, we can’t help but think that this is all simply a high priced publicity stunt to get the doomed Euro currency some air time.

For many of the European peoples, the Euro currency has served as nothing more than an unwanted crash course in math and an agent of larceny on the grandest of scales.  The average Jacque, Giorgos, Jorge, or Giovanni would have been better off in the long run had the Euro never been dreamed up.

Rising Populism in Europe to test the ECB’s commitment to elasticity

However, the continued use of the Euro is an extremely high priority to for a select few with addreses on Wall Street, in The City, and anywhere in Germany.  As such, the current tack for the doomed Euroship is for it to be spoken of in the same context as climate change or terrorism, which invariably involves an increasingly illogical and alarmist rhetoric.

The question of whether or not something should be done is glossed over in favor of handing supreme power to a body who demands that something be done.  The only rhetoric that is allowed beyond fear mongering is a discussion of what the supreme power should do.

And so it is with the Euro.

There will be a number of elections over the coming months in the Eurozone, and not one of them will matter.  The tone in Europe is turning decidedly populist, as George Friedman eloquently describes in his recent Geopolitcal Weekly report via Stratfor:

The Futility of European Elections

The only question that remains is whether or not the ECB will accomodate the populist agenda with an accomodative monetary policy.

Our guess is that they will, for populism has never been bound by fiscal restraint.

 

Watch “Italy’s Welfare Minister Elsa Fornero In Tears Over Austerity Sacrifices” on YouTube

Elsa Fornero breaks down a she announces Italy’s proposed austerity measures. Nobody in the government likes to see austerity, nobody.

Watch “Farage: What gives you the right to dictate to the Greek and Italian people?” on YouTube

Nigel Farage of Ireland, calling the loss of sovereignty in Europe for what it is. Will Spain be the next country to have a puppet government thrust upon it?

The Dow Rises against a Wave of Bad News, The Inflation Mega-Trend Releases Caged Currency into the Wild

11/7/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
The fairy tale of the world’s current financial system continued today.  Stocks crept higher in the face of what seems to be a deluge of bad news:

“Frustration mounts for MF Global clients” – Jon Corzine’s firm cannot account for $600 million in client funds.  Beyond the inability to deliver client funds on demand, MF Global clients began receiving margin calls as their collateral with the firm vanished.  The ripple effect was so severe that commodities exchanges relaxed their margin rules in order to to avoid wider damage.  The fall of MF Global was like an earthquake, now it is time to brace for the financial Tsunami.

New Census data raise number of poor to 49 million” – The official poverty rate is 15.1%.  However, it hits 16% when you slide the income bar just a bit higher to $24,343 for a family of four.  In other words, one in six Americans is currently living below this slightly adjusted poverty measure.

“Italy bond yields soar; euro zone troubles deepen” – Lest we forget that the euro financial system is a complete disaster, Italian yields are climbing and the Italian bond market is beginning to resemble the leaning tower of Pisa.  Then came reports that Spain only had 20 billion Euros in reserves at the end of August (they must have spent their savings on vacation!) and as their banking system crumbles, they are largely helpless to intervene to save it.  Meanwhile France is now pushing austerity leaving Germany and the ECB as the only backstops in Europe.

Yet in spite of this disasterous news, the Dow is holding just above 12,000.  What does it mean?

Far from signaling economic recovery, the action appears to be further evidence that what Nadeem Walayat at the Market Oracle calls the Inflation Mega-Trend (and consequent Stealth Bull Market in stocks) is firmly in place.

The Mega-Trend, as Mr. Walayat calls it, is the simultaneous debasement of the currency and spreading of deflationary propaganda intended to delay the public’s reaction to the inflation caused by said debasement.

Think about it, while the FED, ECB, BoJ, and nearly every other Central Bank in the world pump money into their financial systems in order to “fight deflation” or “stimulate the export market,” the average person has watched gas, food, and the price of nearly everything else (besides their paycheck) steadily rise over the past decade.

The the public is told that these steady increases are “healthy inflation” which is currently “understood” to be roughly 2% a year.  This 2% in reality represents the indirect tax rate imposed on anyone who chooses to hold a currency as an asset or accept the currency as wages.  There is not time here to properly refute the fallacy that inflation is somehow necessary for GDP growth.  However, inflation is useful and absolutely necessary to keep an insane, “debt is money”, ponziesque, wealth destroying monetary system functioning.

As the Central Bank creates trillions of dollars out of thin air in a vain attempt to stabilize the global financial system, the public is told that it this new currency is “benign” because most of the money is being held on deposit at the Federal Reserve simply to buffer the banks against falling asset prices and keep the ATM machines spitting out cash.

Yet, with the stock market maintaining its optimism in the face of seeming insurmountable odds, can you be sure that the FED’s funny money is safely locked up in its electronic vaults, simply waiting to have foreclosed properties written off against it?

Will all of this freshly printed money really be content to simply die a quiet death, never having run through an ATM or point of sale transaction in the real world?

Oh, fellow taxpayer, we have our doubts.  You should too.  More tomorrow.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

Key Indicators for November 7, 2011

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,796 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,122,700,000,000 RED ALERT!!! THE ANIMALS ARE LEAVING THE ZOO!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,507,600,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

The Three Ring Circus Begins

10/25/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday, it appeared that the authorities had most of the problems that ail the world’s economy resolved.  All they needed was a little more time, money and cooperation to implement their plans and the good times would be rolling once again!  Today, instead of coordinated, determined action, it appears that a three ring circus of sorts is beginning.

In Ring 1, we have the European Clown Car:  Yesterday, Europe looked ready to announce a plan to simultaneously solve the sovereign debt, banking, and resultant currency crises in one fell swoop.  Today, it appears that Italy is balking at implementing a growth plan on moment’s notice and Germany and France will need a miracle to announce a credible Pan-European rescue package by tomorrow, their self imposed deadline.  What a difference a day makes!

It should be clear by now to most sober persons that regardless of what is announced tomorrow, the Euro as a currency in its present form is not viable.  It should also be clear that the countries who have adopted the Euro will give away what is left of their sovereignty in a vain attempt to preserve it.

Step Right Up! The Three Ring Economic Circus Begins

In Ring 2, we have the American Elephants:  The US is quietly completing three Bond auctions that will cause the national debt higher than the national GDP.  The official total should eclipse GDP by the end of October.  100% of GDP is when the debt of a mere mortal nation (Greece, for example) has traditionally harkened national bankruptcy.

The only exception to this rule is in Ring 3, the Japanese Tight Rope Walker: Japan, where national debt is north of 200% of GDP.  How do they avoid bankruptcy?  Simple, they print money to pay the debt.  As if to prove our point, today, the Bank of Japan decided that they have seen enough Yen appreciation and announced another five trillion Yen currency printing campaign.

When money doesn’t exist, the sky is the limit, which is why commodities and certain equities are set to explode to the upside.  Bonds, while they may not fall in nominal value, will fall in relative value as they are repaid in severely depreciated currencies.

As if on cue, commodities took off today.  How high and far they will fly this time is anyone’s guess.

As the circus gets underway, the sober amongst us are beginning to wonder, sometimes aloud, “if the Governments, banks, and monetary authorities cannot solve these problems, then who can?”

The answer, fellow taxpayer, is right under our fingertips.  We, the People of the earth can solve it.  The tool we have been given is our own wit and ingenuity.  The only requirement is that we embrace True Capitalism, for better or for worse, for richer or poorer, until death do us part.

What is True Capitalism?  It may be summed up as a deep, radical respect for life, liberty, and private property.  It is an understanding that mutual cooperation is more often than not in our rightly understood interests (to use a Mises term).  It is not simply a choice, it is the only choice.  More to come.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for October 25, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.41
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.17

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.51  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.13%

FED Target Rate:  0.07%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,705 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,707  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,056,000,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,570,500,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Waiting on Armageddon in the Bond Markets, A Freaky Chart form the BIS

7/18/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

We are taking the week off here at The Mint.  As the world observes the pitched battle between default and inflation, we will be roaming the cornfields of Northeastern Nebraska waiting to attend a cousin’s wedding.

To default or not to default, that is the question.  The financial world is on the edge of its seats waiting for the answer.  What will congress do?

Regular Mint readers know that once QE started, the US essentially defaulted.  Everything that is happening now is a mere attempt to avoid openly admitting it.

There has been a startling graph from Bank of International Settlements that has been circling the internet and is worth a look.  You may want to ask the children to leave the room, it is downright scary.

"AAA" Government dominates the market and it is beginning to smell funny!

Do you now understand why what happens in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and the US in the coming weeks is of the utmost importance for the bond markets?  In a very short period of time, sovereign debt issues have become predominant.  The scary part of the chart is that any sane person can tell you that there simply ain’t that much AAA rated paper out there, no matter who issues it or who rates is.

With what is sure to be an action packed week as the financial world braces for the next of its many brushes with Armageddon.  Not matter what happens, the only clear winner promises to be the volatility index (which you can conveniently trade as VIX).  If there truly is the threat of a default, try TBT, the Ultrashort US Treasuries EFT.

Better yet, head down to your local coin shop, load up on physical Gold and Silver, and come roam the cornfields with us, worry free!

Stay Fresh,

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S. If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint, please share us using the buttons at the top of this post. If you feel that you can’t go another day and risk missing The Mint, please register by clicking here. Thank you!

Key Indicators for July 18, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $4.39
Oil Price per Barrel: $97.12
Corn Price per Bushel: $7.01
10 Yr US Treasury Bond: 2.91%
FED Target Rate: 0.06% JAPAN HERE WE COME!
Gold Price Per Ounce: $1,594 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY
MINT Perceived Target Rate*: 2.00%
Unemployment Rate: 9.2%
Inflation Rate (CPI): 0.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 12,479 TO THE MOON!!!
M1 Monetary Base: $2,027,500,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base: $9,265,600,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

*See the MINT Perceived target Rate Chart. This rate is the FED Target rate with a 39 month lag, representing the time it takes for the FED Target rate changes to affect the real economy. This is a 39 months head start that the FED member banks have on the rest of us on using the new money that is created.