At the bottom of every Mint, we include a handy set of data which we consider so important that we have named the compilation ‘Key Indicators.” Taken apart, they are just numbers. They are neither good not bad, they are simply data points.
Taken together, they tell a story. The story of The Mint’s Key Indicators is one of what Nadeem Walayat, over at the Market Oracle, refers to as the “Inflation Mega-Trend.” The phenomenon, in other corners, has been referred to as the “Commodity Super Cycle,” and other superlatives.
The driving factor behind the narrative is that the monetary authorities across the globe are in the process of causing inflation, via direct electronic money printing and intervening in debt markets to create the illusion of low borrowing rates, on a scale once thought impossible.
What makes their inflationary actions all the more sinister is that they are continually trumpeted in the media as necessary due to fears of deflation.
The Inflation Mega Trend, if it indeed is intact, has serious implications for investment strategies. First and foremost, fixed income is dead. Most governmental and institutional debt instruments are issued today at negative real interest rates, meaning that those purchasing them are agreeing, up front, to a loss in purchasing power of the funds.
The classic way to invest in this environment, has been to purchase precious metals, other hard commodities, real estate, and, as one analyst put it, “plastic silverware, toilet paper, really anything real.” Equities have also been a good place to invest as long as the trend is intact, preferably those stocks which are components of the indices which are targeted to rise by the monetary authorities, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
If one is following this investment strategy, the question that must be asked, day after day, year after year, is the following:
Is the Inflation Mega Trend still in place?
The Mint’s Key Indicators are presented to respond to this question. The following is a table which compares each Key Indicator to its level on the same day during the past two years, along with a one word interpretation as to what the annual change in the indicator is telling us:
The Mint’s Key Indicators on October 19
What is striking about this graphic is that, of the three indicators which do not indicate that inflation is continuing, two are, at this point, directly controlled by the Federal Reserve’s actions, the 10yr US Treasury Yield and the FED Target Rate.
Folks, despite deflationary propaganda to the contrary, the Inflation Mega Trend is alive and well. Don’t believe the hype and invest accordingly.
As we watched the Presidential debate Tuesday night, along with the rest of the huddled American masses, we were hoping to hear something that would sway us from our current non-voter status. We hardly listened to what was said, although our radar went up as one attendee asked about inflation, which happens to fall into our realm of interests. The periscope of our consciousness went down, however, as each candidate responded in turn with a stream of words which registered as a vague reference to a non-entity referred to as “the economy.”
They just don’t get it. And unless someone at the top “gets” the concept of inflation and its root causes very soon, the current form of the United States government may not exist by the time the next Presidential term is completed.
With the exception of the inflation bit, we hardly listened to what was said. Politics, as most politicians will attest, has nothing to do with the keeping or breaking of promises. In the end, these expensive popularity contests boil down to the intangible of charisma.
As such, we were more interested in the demeanor of the candidates. Both, while giving the appearance of physically fit, well dressed, and well informed men, seemed to lack something we call the spark of life, that thing that makes you want to be around somebody. The intangible of charisma, so hard to define, yet so apparent when present, did not make an appearance last night.
We decided to retain our current policy regarding democratic elections.
At The Mint, our current policy is to refrain from voting on all matters which ask us to reach beyond our own city and county. Even then, we inform ourselves and vote, not on individuals seeking election to sinecures, but on specific referendums, generally with the dual aim of obtaining personal benefit and minimizing both our tax bill and governmental interference in our personal affairs.
How did we arrive at such an unreasonable stance with regards to voting? How can we consciously fail to perform our “civic duty” year in and year out and still live with ourselves?
The conscious decision not to vote, at its base, is our way of peacefully resisting what has become a shameless power grab at the highest levels of government. A series of well intentioned actions at the Federal level has lead to a number of unintended consequences which are about to cause a great deal of suffering.
Beyond this philosophical objection, there are practical matters to consider, which we submit for your examination and comment:
1. Mind-boggling complexity
From time to time, a ballot measure will be presented which will be stated in a manner so clearly that one can place a vote and know exactly what a yay or nay will mean in terms of real world consequences. As for the rest of the ballot issues, along with the selection of lawmakers and judges as our proxies, one can’t be expected to keep up with the chaos that passes as national and state governments, and for the most part, we feel that participating in elections or the political process on at these levels is at best a waste of precious time and, at worst, encouraging an enterprise which long ago overstepped any reasonable boundaries, both in its authority and its ability to manage its finances. At this point, the best one can hope for is to stay clear of the amoeba.
Large scale democracy has a nasty habit of imposing the will of a few on all via the ignorance or indifference of many. Circa 2012, voters are rarely asked straightforward questions like “Is it ok to steal and kill?” They are instead asked questions like “Do you prefer a fellow named Obama or Romney to serve as President?” We will ignore the fact that politicians on the State and National level are thrust immediately into situations where keeping promises depends upon factors far beyond their control, and simply recognize that the choosing the President of the United States does little or nothing to change the underlying bureaucracies and interests which have turned the Government of the United States into a strange form of benevolent mafia.
2. The question of taxes.
By our calculations, we give up roughly 16 hours per year just compiling data for and filing the required tax declarations at the State and Federal levels. Not to mention the time spent generating the money to pay said taxes. On the county level, this seems reasonable. The county even has the courtesy to calculate the tax bill for us and simply request payment. As for compliance, it is simple, you either pay the bill or you don’t.
Further, if you think that your tax bill is too high, you can leave the City or County and find a City or County with a more reasonable tax regimen, or no regimen at all.
While leaving the City or County may be a costly step, it may be feasible for those who desire to move. Relocating geographically from a State or a Country is quite another matter, which makes their manner of taxation both understandable and sinister.
The Federal and State governments, as opposed to most county governments, have a much different take on both taxation, as well as the rest of the authorities which they have granted themselves over their subjects. We use the term “grant themselves” because, as anyone who has tried to vote their conscience on a ballot measure can attest, many measures are written in a way that simply makes the voter a tool in the hand of those who crafted the legislation.
{Editor’s note: We will refrain from going into the argument that somehow, the illusion of democracy, the Western embodiment of the “Might makes right” mentality, creates a government with legitimacy on the scale the the State and Federal Governments circa 2012 claim. It is sufficient to say that there are an abundance of examples which would argue to the contrary.}
Returning to taxation with regards to the State and Federal regimens, it is up to the individual to file a declaration each year at their own expense. Naturally, the governments reserve the right to audit said declaration, again, at the taxpayers expense. If any inconsistencies are encountered, the taxpayer faces a myriad of penalties from the payment of additional taxes and penalties up to and including serving time in prison.
Even this tack could be considered reasonable were the tax codes written in a straightforward manner. As things are, the income tax code serves as nothing more than a spider’s web, designed to entangle all who tread it. We are all caught in it, it is just a matter of time until the spider makes its way over to devour us.
The saving grace, if there is one with regards to the State and Federal tax regimen is this.They can’t take us all. While it is likely that every single American has failed to fully comply with the 73,608 page tax code, it is extremely unlikely that the spiders of the various Government or State tax authorities will ever get around to eating all of those who are caught in their web. As with any predator, they tend to go after the larger prey first.
In this sense, adopting the Franciscan/Marxian belief that poverty is a virtue may keep one safely off of the spider’s radar.
3. The Trail of Tears
While both complexity and having to pay for something are generally good enough reasons to abstain from any activity, the most compelling reason not to vote is one that is best understood by examining one of the most shameful examples of the modus operandi of the Federal Government: Their well documented dealings with the Cherokee people, whose world collided with the Feds in the early 19th century in the Southeastern part of North America.
The Trail of Tears, a painful chapter in US History – courtesy of http://katta1f.wikispaces.com/
We refrain from making value judgments and will simply examine the highlights of the interaction as we understand them. A much more detailed account can be found, as always, in the Wikipedia.
The Cherokee found themselves generally prospering as a people and inhabiting lands in the Southeastern US in the 1700 and early 1800’s after presumably relocating there from the Great Lakes region. During this time, they increasingly came into contact with European settlers and engaged them in trade.
As time went on, the increasingly organized and well armed colonies began to covet the lands of the various Indian groups in North America. Once the revolution against the British and subsequent conflict known as the War of 1812 had been won, the States of the newly formed United States of America began to dispossess the various Indian peoples of their lands.
{Editors Note: Sensitive readers are asked to excuse, for the moment, the use of the term “Indian” (Columbus most likely died believing that he had landed in India en route to China, hence the mistaken identity attached to Native Americans peoples), instead of the appropriate “Native American”. The choice to change terms at this point in the essay was made consciously so that the reader may understand which groups were impacted by the barbarous Indian Removal Act. No disrespect is implied or intended.}
While their tactics changed according to what was politically expedient at the time, the general policy of the State and Federal Governments was to ultimately expel the Indian populations and force them West, so that the vested interests of the States could take advantage of the lands which were occupied by the Indians.
What is most troubling about the treatment of the Cherokee people is that, from what we can tell, they had adapted to life amongst the new colonists and generally worked to comply with what were ultimately unreasonable demands of the governments. As a case in point, the Cherokee allied themselves with and fought alongside the US against the pro-British factions during the War of 1812. They served the US’s interests in the war alongside none other than Andrew Jackson.
Jackson later returned the favor by signing the Indian Removal Act in 1830 which sealed the Cherokee’s fate and began the final chain of events which would lead many of them to an early grave along the now infamous “Trail of Tears.”
While the the Indian Removal Act was passed on the assumption that the Cherokee and other Indian groups faced certain extinction were they to be forced to live alongside the increasingly numerous white settlers, it is generally acknowledged today that the real motivation for the Act’s passage was the discovery of gold in Georgia.
We have read about and watched similar scenarios of deceptions preceded and followed by apologetics play out too many times by centralized governments over the ages to believe that a group of persons who do not know our name and are so far removed from us that they would not recognize our moccasins if they took the time to walk a mile in them, have our best interests at heart.
Even if they did, we have observed that their best efforts to effect change on a large scale end up causing more harm than good. While the economic damage done by such unilateral actions can be repaired or forgiven, the damage to the moral character of a society of embracing this might makes right mentality will ultimately destroy it.
The desire not to participate in the choosing of the next person to be called “Commander in Chief,” or any of their collaborators or subordinates, is the primary reason why we will not be walking around with a sticker on our chest or an ink stained hand on election day.
For The Trail of Tears has been tread for too long. It is time to live in the Kingdom of God.
With the election cycle in full swing, we turn our attention not to the national scene, where two people we will refer to only as BO and MR are bombarding the nation with empty promises in hopes that the dangling chads in November will fall their way, but to more pressing local matters.
Here at The Mint, we recognize that the natural operation of anarchy renders much of what happens at the highest levels of government, which in the US means those seated at the State and Federal levels increasingly irrelevant. While they have the potential to do great harm, government on a large-scale generally suffers from a form of paralysis which makes their decisions increasingly meaningless to the average Joe. They have grown to the point where they are nothing more than an amoeba, which at best should be ignored and at worst, actively avoided.
As such, we consider it a great waste of time to obsess over them.
Government at the local level, meaning the City and, more importantly, the County level, has a much greater direct impact on the lives of its constituents. As such, we see government at the City and County level as absolutely necessary to the smooth functioning of society. We also present, for your consideration, that participation in government at a local level is not only time well spent, it can be profitable.
A great opportunity to guide public policy at a local level is presented frequently at events that are generally referred to as requests for public comment. While in some cases, these events are held to give an air of legitimacy to an already planned action, some of them present a grand opportunity to sway local policy and public resource investment decisions. Given this grand opportunity, it may come as a surprise that these events are often overlooked, even by those who would be directly affected by the action being considered.
For your perusal and enjoyment, we present the following example of yours truly taking advantage of such an opportunity presented by our County’s Minor Betterment Project Committee.
Each year, the committee is presented with a list of potential minor public works projects which have been vetted by overpaid consultants and assigned a ranking based on a point system which is theoretically designed by the consultant to capture potential public benefit of a project in a tidy little number.
This is like the BCS for your tax dollars, and, as any NCAA coach knows, it never hurts to lobby your case, especially when the voting is tight.
We recently found out that a much-needed improvement project, one that could modestly increase our property value, had made the “Top 20” of the latest version of the public works BCS.
The ancients had sidewalks, why can’t we? photo of sidewalks in Pompeii by Paul Vlaar
Like any good coach, we picked up our digital writing implement and began to lobby for our own, local, pet project. The result of this activity is what we call “A Passionate Appeal for a Sidewalk,” a transcript of which follows:
As both a property owner and frequent pedestrian of this stretch of Madison Road, I can attest to the large-scale safety hazard that the lack of a pedestrian walkway on this stretch of road presents daily. Not only to the school children who wait for the bus on the thoroughfare during the morning, but all manner of pedestrians, bicyclists, school bus drivers, and vehicle operators who daily traverse it. Were it not for the vigilance of the drivers on this stretch of road, this perilous route would no doubt be the site of a lamentable tally of traffic fatalities.
For those who have not seen it, Madison road is narrow and increasingly relied upon by all manner of commuters (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists) during rush hours. During these peak times, it is commonplace to see cars nearly miss a head on collision with each other as they make a noble attempt to give way for pedestrians (a majority of which are school children) who literally have no choice but to walk along the 12 inch border of the existing roadway alloted to them. Alternative routes for this pedestrian trail are far enough away to that they are not viable options, and, as we mentioned before, pedestrian traffic on this stretch of road continues to increase.
While the sidewalk project proposed to remedy this dangerous situation is the most expensive on the list, and can hardly be considered minor, the money spent will likely spare a tragedy involving the dangerous mix of vehicles and school children which is present every day of the school year. If the goal of these projects is to increase the safety of the community, this project has perhaps the greatest potential to do just that. In a sense, it is long overdue.
We, your neighbors along this deceptively dangerous stretch of Madison road, appreciate the committee’s attention to this matter.
What do you think, will our impassioned plea sway the committee to divert funds into our pet project? We should know by late October whether or not ours comes out on top. Either way, civic involvement, on a local level, is necessary given the proximity of the governing body. While the body and budget itself is small, its potential to wreak havoc on your everyday life is too big to ignore, just ask anyone who has found themselves on the wrong end of a dispute with an activist home owners association board.
As for the State and Federal versions of Government, in their late, degenerate, bankrupt form they can do little more than create the illusion of watching your every move and controlling the details of your life. Despite their large-scale propaganda and their presence at the airport gate, they are mostly harmless. Your impassioned pleas and time spent informing yourself on issues are best spent at the local level.
Who knows? You may even save a life or make the world a better place, all while increasing your property value at the government’s expense.
It is the closest thing to Nirvana that the governed can experience.
We have recently completed reading a book entitled “The Language of God” by Francis S. Collins. Dr. Collins is extremely gifted geneticist who was the head of the project which lead to the mapping of the human genome. This makes him a rock star in the scientific community. He is also a Christian, which makes him a rock star in the Evangelical Church. In this book, his aim is to use both his personal faith journey and his revolutionary work as a geneticist to reconcile what would appear to be a long, deep chasm between the two most popular theories regarding the origin of the world: Evolution and Creation.
Collins takes great pains to appease both camps, and ultimately ends up defending a position which theoretically appeases both: Theistic Evolution, TE, or what he calls “Biologos.”
The concept of Biologos, as we understand it, is that the earth is indeed billions of years old, yet the process of evolution, which God chose as His creative process, has been intricately designed and nurtured by Him. As such, it rejects both the literal seven day creation narrative in Genesis and takes it as allegory, which, given the text, may be a defensible position, as well as natural selection as the guiding light of evolution, which, again, given the mathematical improbabilities of random changes evolving into the world in which we live today, may also be defensible.
However, Dr. Collins is such a brilliant mind that, as he studies the question from nearly every angle and offers a rebuttal to the Evolution, Creation, and Intelligent Design theories, His presentation of Biologos, while an attempting to create harmony, leaves itself open to the very critiques with which He so skillfully dismisses the other theories.
Namely, Biologos appears as simply another “God of the gaps” argument which Collins so eloquently dismisses Intelligent Design on its obvious shortcoming: If you are basing your faith in God on the fact that there are phenomena that cannot be explained, limiting God to acting in only those spheres that mankind does not yet understand, you run the danger of having your faith shaken if and when science provides an irrefutable, natural explanation for an occurence once thought possible only through divine intervention.
Dr. Collins’ rebuttal of the literal seven day creation also rang empty. In the single page with which He addresses the theory, He fails to raise any other argument apart from the fact that there is undeniable proof that the earth has been in existence for billions of years. He then implies, from His revolutionary work on the genome, that all living things share a remarkable similarity at the base level, which he logically extrapolates as proof that all that we see is the result of an evolution from a base form.
While Biologos may help those who cannot imagine that the very concept of time itself may be flawed to sleep at night, both His elaborate defense of the mechanism of evolution and haste in dismissing the creation narrative in Genesis leaves the 47% of us who do believe in the literal young earth creation story feeling somewhat slighted, as the crux of the question lies in two different perceptions of time which Dr. Collins discounts without addressing objections as he so skillfully does when rebutting pure evolution and Intelligent Design.
To sum up a lengthy explanation of our position, that not only the perception of time, but time itself is subjective, we ask the following question: Is time currently flying by for you, or does it seem to be dragging on forever?
No matter how one responds, the question itself implies that the perception of time is relative when taken against creative processes. If time is flying by, this implies that your perception of your ability to create is outstripping your perception of the time available to dedicate to creative tasks. If it is dragging on forever, it could be said that you are creating things at a pace more rapid than you had allowed based on your perception of time.
So it is with the observance of natural phenomenon. Evolutionary theories imply that creative processes involved in genetic mutations take place over a constant flow of time. Anyone who has realized a creative activity will quickly recognize that the flow of work or ideas which leads to observable outputs is hardly constant, rather, there is a burst of activity, followed by a consolidation and revision, and finally an output.
Our conclusion, albiet informed by nothing more than our logic, is that evolutions that appear to have taken billions of years to be realized at a constant rate of change, are the product of a burst of creative activity which has then slowed, and consolidated since its inception. The rates of change, observed in genetic mutuations and carbon dating, which we take for a fact now, cannot be extrapolated backwards nor forwards as constant rates of change simply because current rates of change have been observed and calculated in the past 100 years.
We must say, however, we are not a scientist, rather, a philosopher in this sense. Our position may or may not be defensible. Only the broken yardstick of time will tell.
Puns aside, we find ourselves in agreement with Dr. Collins’ premise that basing one’s faith in literal interpretations of the Bible, especially the Old Testament, leaves one open to any attacks on those interpretations which necessarily present a crisis of faith for those who lean on them. In place of literal interpretations, he offers both the existence of the nearly universal moral code amongst the human race, as well as the well documented eye witness accounts in the Bible, namely the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ, as irrefutable evidence that God exists and has revealed Himself in the person of Jesus.
He then adds what we consider the most reliable proof of God’s existence and care for mankind, that we can have a personal relationship with our Creator.
We also enjoyed Collins’ presentation of C.S. Lewis’ brilliant argument for Christ’s diety as presented in “Mere Christianity:”
“I am trying here to prevent anyone saying the really foolish thing that people often say about Him: I’m ready to accept Jesus as a great moral teacher, but I don’t accept his claim to be God. That is the one thing we must not say. A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher. He would either be a lunatic — on the level with the man who says he is a poached egg — or else he would be the Devil of Hell. You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God, or else a madman or something worse. You can shut him up for a fool, you can spit at him and kill him as a demon or you can fall at his feet and call him Lord and God, but let us not come with any patronising nonsense about his being a great human teacher. He has not left that open to us. He did not intend to. … Now it seems to me obvious that He was neither a lunatic nor a fiend: and consequently, however strange or terrifying or unlikely it may seem, I have to accept the view that He was and is God.”
While the book does not go as far to settle the debate regarding the origins of the world as one might believe, the true gem of this book lies in the appendix, where Collins explores the ethical implications of his work on the human genome in a style which is truly awe inspiring.
Perhaps the most striking example is His observation that those who oppose stem cell research on ethical grounds must also oppose in-vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures to be consistent, for during IVF, fertilized human eggs which are in the early stages of development are routinely
10/15/2012 – Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
In today’s Mint, we offer, for your enjoyment, an event which transpired during our time of service on the democratically elected dorm council as secretary at Weyer Hall, circa 1993. While the narrative touches upon many themes that will no doubt evoke strong emotions, we humbly offer it as an example of the shortcomings of governance by democratically elected bodies.
It is recounted here, with certain liberties, in loving memory of Ma Tinder, long time dorm Mother at Weyer Hall. Enjoy!
The Stampede.
During our short, but eventful time as a student at Hastings College, we resided in Weyer Hall, an all male dormitory which housed 70 residents. While we assume that the College Administration had ultimate responsibility for campus governance, each dormitory was governed by a small group of democratically elected peers who sat on what was known as the dorm council.
During the Fall semester of our sophomore year, it fell to us to serve on the council as Dorm Secretary. We say fell, because we did not exert much effort in our campaign, nor did we crush an inferior opponent in a moderated debate. For all we know, we may have raised our hand at the wrong time, an innocent mistake which caused our name to land on the ballot.
Nonetheless, we were determined to serve our fellow residents to the best of our abilities. As Secretary, our responsibilities included taking notes of the decisions of the dorm council, which invariably included the details of certain disciplinary actions taken against those who did not follow the rules and were foolish enough to get caught, publicly recognizing noteworthy accomplishments of the residents, if any, and informing them of upcoming events.
Our diligent dispatches reached the desk of the College President as well as the backs of every bathroom stall in the dorm, where they were most likely to be read. For a time we created toned down, official version of the dispatches for the President. However, our inner laziness finally demanded that we produce just one dispatch, complete with all of the juicy tidbits and unsolicited commentary fit to print.
The President seemed to love it.
The dorm council meetings were held in the quarters of the Dorm Mother, affectionately known as Ma Tinder. Ma Tinder’s quarters were located at the center of the first floor of the three story structure. She resided there, along with her dachshund “Peanut” as a source of calm in what was otherwise a cross between “Revenge of the Nerds” and “Animal House.”
The dorm council’s business, which it faithfully discharged at its monthly meetings, was to decide trivial matters, such as the design of the dorm t-shirt (which is fodder for another day), as well as to enforce the rules of the dorm. Violations of the law of the dorm included residents found to have invited a female to the premises without signing them in at the desk, excessive noise, possession of alcohol and other illegal substances, and in one infamous case, the unlawful operation of a charcoal grill…indoors.
The tranquility of Weyer Hall was about to be transformed Photo Courtesy of Hastings.edu
The dorm council, as with any governing body, was divided into unspoken but acknowledged factions. Those who were there to enforce the rules, and those who were there to ensure that the rules, if enforced, were loosely interpreted and administered with clemency.
You can imagine which camp the younger Mint fell into.
So it happened that on a Sunday afternoon, as winter descended upon Central Nebraska, the dorm council assembled in Ma Tinder’s quarters during mandatory “quiet time,” as was the custom. As we were discussing matters of relatively trivial importance, a pounding noise, distant at first, then increasingly loud and frequent, arose from somewhere in the interior of the building until it passed, as would a locomotive, directly above Ma Tinder’s isle of tranquility.
It was the Stampede.
Those members of the council who were firmly in the rules enforcement camp immediately sprang to their feet in pursuit of the perpetrators of what was obviously a direct affront to the authority of the council. To flagrantly violate “quiet time” by running in boxers and boots, as heavily as one could, through the hallway directly above the meeting place of the council was not simply a minor violation of the rules, it was mutiny.
Those of us who found ourselves in the “loose interpretation/clemency” camp slowly arose, fighting off a chuckle, and give the appearance of chase as doors all over Weyer Hall immediately shut as the Stampede ended just as suddenly as it had begun.
For not only did we see the Stampede as an artful form of both coordinated self expression and protest, we had helped instigate it.
In the end, while the entire dorm was given a stern warning to respect the the rules, there were no individual indictments. Like history makers throughout the ages, the Weyer Stampeders had proved their point,
Today we came across one of the most insightful pieces on education that we have read in quite a while. Perhaps we are biased because it we written by a member of our comparatively small generation, or perhaps it is something more. Virginia Heffernan, the national correspondent for Yahoo! News posted an article today entitled:
With what appears to be the benefit of hindsight and a sober look at her own educational experience, she eloquently voices a viewpoint which, almost out of necessity, is quickly moving from the fringe to mainstream thought. A traditional college education, circa 2012, not only fails to offer a competitive advantage in the workforce to those who can set aside four to six otherwise productive years and the untold thousands spent during that time period, it places undue financial and social pressure on both parents and their children from the time of admission to graduation day.
The College Education: A ticket to a rewarding career or four years of indoctrination followed by a trip to debtors prison? There must be a better way. Photo of Harvard Yard in 2009 by chensiyuan
This undue stress is generally attributable to the fact that parents and students alike who find themselves in the middle of a financial commitment which equates to more than a few years worth of wages are collectively questioning the wisdom of throwing money at an investment whose return has turned unacceptably negative in recent years.
The reason for this, as most current economics students may struggle to tell you, is that the college education, like any other economic good, is succumbing to the workings of to the law of diminishing marginal returns. This law is one of the beautiful, immutable natural laws which states that economic activity, if carried on long enough, will reach a point where each additional dollar of capital invested will render a lower return on investment than the previous dollars invested.
This phenomenon is attributable to changes in the underlying supply and demand dynamics which take place as the natural tendency to chase outsized returns drives more people to engage in high margin activities, which increases the supply of that activity’s output. This supply, as it satiates demand, then serves to lower the price of the product until the producers with higher cost structures are driven out of business while producers with lower-cost structures continue producing profitably at lower price points.
The application of the Law of diminishing marginal returns when applied to College degrees in the US
For a period of time, beginning in the 1940’s in the US, it was relatively rare for an individual to obtain a four-year college degree. In economic parlance, there was a scarcity of college educated individuals relative to demand. Those individuals who did obtain a degree received a higher return on their investment in education in the form of higher wages for the rest of their working lives.
{Editor’s Note: We recognize that this analysis ignores the dynamics in the US economy during that time period leading to the demand for college educated individuals in the workforce. For purposes of this example, we submit it as a given to avoid further divergence from our theme.}
As time went on, more and more individuals saw the wisdom in investing in a college education, colleges and universities increased their capacity and course offerings to satisfy this demand. As the workforce continued to demand college educated individuals, this created a virtuous feedback loop in the higher education industry.
This virtuous feedback loop became so normal, as did rising stock prices in the 80’s and rising home values in the 00’s, that seeking to attend a four-year college has become the goal for a great majority of teens.
Circa 2009, the supply of college educated individuals began to overwhelm the demand for their services. At this point, the marginal return on investment for attending a four-year college for many has decreased to the point where it no longer has a positive net present value, the financial criteria most often used by rational individuals when determining whether or not to undertake an action.
Against this dismal backdrop for education entered a phenomenon which is poised to deliver the knockout blow, the widespread adoption of the internet.
While the net productivity gains realized by the advent of the Internet are seen in many spheres, the Internet is maturing to the point that it is now fundamentally changing the structure of education.
Our mother wisely told us, during those difficult years we spent at the University in the 90’s, that the only thing college will teach you is how to access the information you need when you need it.
The advice has served us well, as has Google.
Unlike Heffernan, we do not feel that our college degree is obsolete. In our epoch, it was necessary to attend a four-year school to learn the disciplines of accounting, finance, and treasury which support us today.
However, the internet has fundamentally changed not the disciplines, but the delivery methods of said education. Now, an individual desiring to learn a discipline such as accounting or economics no longer needs to pack their bags to party with others for four years while fitting in class between video games and other shenanigans.
That individual can peruse The Mint, for example, form the comfort of their living room. Then, after leaving the site. thoroughly confused (for which we wish to be held harmless, mind you), they can access any one of thousands of free online tutorials and videos created by capable individuals who will provide an education on a specific subject on demand in a fraction of the time that it takes to obtain a degree.
Gary North has written recently on the YouTube educational phenomenon as well. If one has something to teach the world, it is a small task to obtain a microphone, video camera (think webcam or smart phone), and a YouTube account. Simply teach the class once to a camera, post it, and your done, saving countless hours needlessly spent drooling on yourself as you sleep through class in a lecture hall. This is how a majority of education will be served over the next millennia.
The internet is fundamentally changing the education industry in the same way it has changed communication, and many of our alma maters will soon resemble the US Postal Service, which has struggled in vain to maintain its current state and sinecure structure as the world it grew up in has changed forever.
This analysis does not even address the fact that many four-year colleges have struggled to keep up with the ability to teach the skills demanded by the modern workforce. The net result of this change in delivery methods and competative disadvantage will be the loss of a number of sinecures in the hallowed halls of Liberal Arts colleges across the land.
While the liberal arts and art itself will always find ways to flourish, paying to be forced to read literature that one is not interested is quickly becoming a luxury that college students cannot afford.
There is much confusion amongst economists regarding the effects of the various programs which are currently being run by the largest of the Western Central Banking cartels known as Quantitative easing, better known by its keystroke saving acronym, QE.
For the uninitiated, QE involves the Central Bank issuing currency in exchange for government debt and all other manner of otherwise worthless financial assets provided to it by the banking class. In the best of cases, it provides liquidity for what would be a temporary hiccup in an otherwise healthy economy. In the worst of cases, which most who have taken a sober look at the financial industry would agree we are in, it serves as a backstop for financial asset prices, placing an artificial floor under the price of what passes as collateral in the financial system.
In any case, the Central Bank agrees to swap the wine of its currency for the sewage on bank balance sheets. As anyone who has put this theory to the test will tell you, if you add a teaspoon of wine to barrel full of sewage, you get sewage, while if you add a teaspoon of sewage to a barrel full of wine, you get…sewage.
QE – Sewage in disguise
Following this analogy, the existence of QE means that the currency of all of the Western world is now sewage.
While the pure, hard money Austrian school analyst sees it as a prelude to a hyperinflationary event, the Keynesian sees it as a necessary evil. At this point, there is no real argument that QE, by definition, is inflationary. However, the perverted feedback loop between the Central banks’ issuance of currency, the Governments’ issuance of debt, and the banking sector serving as an increasingly weak middleman, has managed to keep a large portion of the freshly created currency parked in either the Treasury or at the Central Bank in the form of excess bank reserves.
As the logic of the Central Bank goes, once the storm blows over, the stars will align and all of the sewage will turn back into wine. The currency created as a part of QE will simply disappear, as it never really left the FED anyway.
Simple logic, right? You can almost cut the naivety with a knife. The fact is that the freshly minted currency is here to stay. As long as the Governments, Central banks, and banking cartel exist in their present form, none of them can afford for even a cent of the sewage they have created to disappear. It is there for the long haul. All the average man or woman can hope for is that the sewage doesn’t spill off of their balance sheets or work its way to the water supply of the real economy.
All of this is old hat to fiat currency hounds and bond vigilantes. The dangerous new twist which is just now in its infancy is the application of quantum theory to the mix.
Here, we must turn to the razor sharp intellect of Mr. Walayat, whose analysis over at The Market Oracle is on the cutting edge and generally spot on.
Walayat, along with Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner, are amongst the handful of analysts with a true understanding of the banking system and the motives and logical consequences of the actions of the Central banking cartel.
As the currency event in Iran unfolds, those of us in the “secure” West would do well to read up on what awaits as the Western Central banks throw their inflationary machines into overdrive, what Walayat refers to as “The Quantum of Quantitative Easing, or the keystroke saver: QQE.”
The operation of QQE is simple and predictable, yet unnecessarily mind-boggling.
As in a standard QE operation, it begins with the Government issuing debt which is purchased by members of the banking cartel in exchange for currency, which it then spends on any number of pet projects. The Central Bank then buys the Government debt from the banks and receives the interest which is paid by the Government. The Banks park the currency they have received from the Central Bank at the Central Bank and earn interest on it.
QQE ensues when the Central Bank then returns to the Government the difference between the interest paid by the Government on its own debt and the interest paid out to the Banks to keep them afloat. As the Central Bank will never take a nominal loss on their debt holdings, and the Government will never default as long as QE remains in place, The Government is not borrowing at the implied interest rate that it auctions its debt at, rather, it is effectively borrowing at the rate that the banks earn on their reserves deposited at the Central bank, less the cost of the Central Bank’s operations!
Is your head spinning yet? Stay with us, it gets better. The longer that the policy of QE continues (and it will continue until the currencies of the world blow up, as the Iranian Rial is in the process of doing,) the Government is effectively swapping out its old debt, issued 30 years ago at anywhere between 11 and 14%, for new debt at an effective rate of 0.25%! Those interest savings on the rollover are the rocket fuel of QQE. They are what will allow the Governments to both ramp up spending and reduce the relative size of their balance sheet.
By the way, those “savings” come at the expense of every person and organization which holds the currency as a savings vehicle.
In order to gain a fuller understanding of just what is going on, read the articles linked in the above paragraphs at your leisure. They will help to make sense of what is occurring as we begin to see the paradox of increased government spending and reduced or stable levels of national debt.
Oh yes, and double digit real inflation rates, despite the irrelevant claims of the BLS propaganda machine. Plan accordingly, this is not a drill.
The pages of the Bible are full of characters. The characters may be explicitly identified in the Biblical narrative, or, as we have explored by way of the Bible Play earlier, implicitly present. As the teacher, it is extremely important to identify the inspirational character in the narrative that is being explored.
Bettie Mitchell, the founder of Good Samaritan Ministries, described the appearance of inspirational characters in the following way, “Anyone willing to lay down their life for others IS A BIBLICAL CHARACTER…God himself is the inspirational character of the Old Testament. In the New Testament, those who came into contact with Jesus became inspirational characters”
You will notice the above statement appears to expand both the range of inspirational characters to every Biblical character as well as the opportunity to become a Biblical character to anyone willing to lay down their life for others.
In order to understand the concept of the Biblical and inspirational character, we must first understand something about the Bible.
The Biblical record has been carefully passed down to us by the Jews, who see the Old Testament as not only the history of their people, but a sacred text entrusted to them by God which is to be shared with the entire world. In this sense, Judaism is unique to many religions who view their sacred texts as proprietary information, accessible only to those with the proper spiritual credentials.
It is odd, then, that the Old Testament should not be a book which has been carefully edited to make the Jewish people appear especially heroic. In fact, it may be said that a great deal of the Old Testament deals with the Jewish people’s shortcomings when establishing and attempting to fulfill their covenant with God.
In the same way, the New Testament may be seen as a compact version of the same, self depreciating narrative of the origins of Christianity.
Yet the point of the Biblical narratives, which have been carefully preserved and widely disseminated against all odds, is not to justify the position with relationship to God of Jews and Christians, rather, it is to point out that it is impossible for anyone to claim a place of privilege with regards to The Holy One.
As one reads through the Bible, it quickly becomes apparent, as early as the second chapter, that the performance of good deeds is not a preresiquite for inclusion. While being a Biblical character may bestow upon the individual a certain amount of fame, it does not automatically qualify them as an inspirational character.
Yet there is one action that is and always will be pleasing to the Holy One, it is the act of starting where one is and desperately seeking after God.
“Here I am. Send Me!” Isaiah, an example of an Inspirational Character {18th century Russian icon of the prophet Isaiah located in the Iconostasis of Transfiguration church, Kizhi monastery, Karelia, Northern Russia, painted by an unidentified artist during the first quarter of the 18th century.}
The desperate seeker, from Isaiah declaring “Here I am! Send Me!” (Isaiah 6:8) to the Apostle John, who, upon hearing John the Baptist call Jesus the Lamb of God (John 1:29), arose and ran after Him, to the desperate man or woman today, crying out in the middle of inexplicable pain and loss for answers, the desperate seeker is the inspirational character.
The one who is constantly seeking and moving towards God, the one who chooses to turn the other cheek, to lay down their life for others, to accept and carry out the hard assignments, to walk humbly with the Holy One, to seek justice despite incurring personal injury, to love their neighbor as themselves, they are the inspirational characters.
Seek them out, in the Biblical narrative, within yourself and all around you, and you will find them. Once the inspirational character has been identified, the class will be greatly enriched as you, as the teacher, encourage the class to experience the Biblical narrative from their perspective.
Once identified, it is extremely important to supplement your knowledge of this person by exploring them as they appear in other Biblical narratives, if any, as well as other credible historical references that may be available. The class will connect to the the Biblical narrative and the assignments presented only to the extent that they connect to the inspirational character.
Further, one of the goals of the class setting is to bring the class as close as possible to the inspirational character, so that they may be in a position, as the inspirational character was, to accept the assignments which are presented to them as individuals. For one, it may be to reconcile with a family member, for another, it may be to pick up their mat and walk, for another, it may be to accept a position of influence to root out corruption.
Whatever the assignment may be, the inspirational character will help those in the class to find the courage to seek out and accept them. For the Lord is with those who seek, and great blessing awaits those who are willing to say, along with Isaiah, “Here I am. Send me!”
As you and the class explore the text together and are lead by the Holy Spirit, it will become evident that all of those present have the potential to be the inspirational character in their home, workplace, and beyond.
A quick note to share a smattering of links and thoughts related to the Catalan Independence movement and the latest wave of anti-austerity protests in the Club Med region:
The people of the Mediterranean states are no fools, they realize that they have been made the scapegoats and guarantors for years of mismanagement by their parasitic central governments and banking sectors. In a reasonable world, where the government respected its citizens, a region like Catalunya would have the right to shrug off the debts of the central government and make a go of providing basic services on its own.
The Catalans deserve better
Something, that most Catalans will point out, it is capable of doing very well.
However, when it comes to sovereign debt, it appears that there is no escape for the capable. Rather, the noose is generally tightened as the central government becomes increasingly desperate for revenue.
All reasonable dialogue is thrown out the window, and the central government makes a nationalist appeal and orders subservience at the point of a gun, as evidenced by the statement issued by the Spanish Military Association to Artur Mas.
The statement comes in response to protests calling for Catalan independence that included one in five Catalans (1.5 Million of 7.5 Million).
We must note, however, that the Catalans are an unusually peaceful people, and the chances of widespread violence are nil.
We were attending grad school in Barcelona when the tragic Madrid train bombing occurred on March 12, 2004. Apalled by the violence, we participated in a protest of similar size.
It was beautiful.
We took the Metro to Passeig de Gracia and slowly streamed down Barcelona’s grandest boulevard. As we came together with the main march, it was apparent that this was a large event which was hell-bent on rejecting the violence with an overwhelming show of peace.
No al terrorisme, No a la Guerra by Kippeboy via wikimedia commons
As we marched down the Paseo, from time to time the procession of millions would stop, clap our hands, slap our legs, and then hold our hands, palms out, in front of us in silence in a grand gesture that shouted through the silence:
Enough of terrorism, enough of war. This message came to the world in stark contrast to the regular reaction of an eye for an eye that had been pursued up to this point with predictable results.
We pray that this latest round of protests in our beloved Catalunya and Spain end in a similar fashion, with a firm and peaceful rejection of austerity, and a show of solidarity and goodwill towards men.
The global smart phone industry is still reeling from the implications of the ruling in favor of Apple in a high stakes legal battle with rival Samsung in the mobile technology space.
To be clear, Apple has every right to make use of the remedies available to them under international patent law. As the law is written, there can be no mistake that the pioneering iPhone and iOS operating system has been shamelessly mimicked in a desperate attempt to replicate its success and help satiate the insatiable human need for easy to use technology at an affordable price on a platform friendly to developers.
Yes, the villains at Samsung are being punished for listening to the market and copying and improving upon Apple’s design, making it faster, bigger, more affordable, and accessible to developers.
For this their punishment should be all the more severe.
So should the punishment for every organic farmer who dares to “copy” a seed which has been “patented” by Monsanto, or anyone who puts their hands to work to cultivate or, dare we say, improve upon something that has been made before them.
The point is that patent law, while serving the important function of protecting innovations as they come to market, is counterproductive on a societal level when they are enforced to keep copy cat products, which meet a need that the original product does not. In the example of the iPhone, offering a similar product at a more accessible price with an easier to use interface.
In fact, we see that in nearly every example of a company or individual invoking patent protections to protect its products, the law ends up causing a greater loss to society as they are forced to choose between what is now seen as an inferior or prohibitively expensive product or go without until the patent holder sees fit, from the crystal cage of their legal monopoly, to grant the populace an upgrade or a price break.
Apple, in this sense, has admitted defeat in the mobile realm, as the iPhone 5 proves once again that, after establishing the baseline for mobile technology through sheer genius, they are forced to lean on patent laws to maintain what should have been a clear competitive advantage.
In the case against Samsung, we see that the authorities are more interested in product pride than allowing free actors in the market to supply a consumer need that the iPhone does not, par for the course in a system where Crony Capitalism daily stifles what may be life-changing innovations.
Thank goodness the human genome wasn’t patented! Where would we apply for the right to reproduce?
Full disclosure: We own devices with both android and iOS operating systems. For those who have never tried a droid, let’s just say that it makes operating in the iOS and the Apple ecosystem feel like being shackled with a pair of handcuffs. For those who have never tried the iOS, let’s just say it makes the droid feel clunky and unstable. Were it possible to mesh the iOS with the freedom of the android ecosystem, mobile nirvana would be achieved. Thanks to patent law enforcement, it never will be.
At the Mint we, along with the rest of the world, follow current events with a wary understanding that the world is slowly destabilizing.
As international trade continues to collapse, energy that would otherwise be spent on productive activities is increasingly directed towards military preparations as nationalistic animosity rises to take its place.
As we studied our MBA in Barcelona back in 2003, our EU history professor speculated privately to us that the US invasion of Iraq had more to do with keeping an eye on China than any existential threat that Iraq posed at the time.
Circa 2012, his words seem almost prophetic. Now, as the Israeli/Iranian nuclear rhetoric continues to escalate, there is a new conflict over an old dispute in the East China Sea between China and Japan which, if it continues to escalate, could theoretically force the US into hostilities with China.
It is hard to image a worse scenario in both Iran and China. At the same, it is hard to imagine a more likely scenario as world governments increasingly look for distractions to a failure of domestic economic policies.
As always, Statfor provides informed insight for the geographically challenged such as ourselves in the following report. Enjoy and stay fresh!
Sept. 29 will mark 40 years of normalized diplomatic relations between China and Japan, two countries that spent much of the 20th century in mutual enmity if not at outright war. The anniversary comes at a low point in Sino-Japanese relations amid a dispute over an island chain in the East China Sea known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and Diaoyu Islands in China.
These islands, which are little more than uninhabited rocks, are not particularly valuable on their own. However, nationalist factions in both countries have used them to enflame old animosities; in China, the government has even helped organize the protests over Japan’s plan to purchase and nationalize the islands from their private owner. But China’s increased assertiveness is not limited only to this issue. Beijing has undertaken a high-profile expansion and improvement of its navy as a way to help safeguard its maritime interests, which Japan — an island nation necessarily dependent on access to sea-lanes — naturally views as a threat. Driven by its economic and political needs, China’s expanded military activity may awaken Japan from the pacifist slumber that has characterized it since the end of World War II.
An Old Conflict’s New Prominence
The current tensions surrounding the disputed islands began in April. During a visit to the United States, Tokyo Gov. Shintaro Ishihara, a hard-line nationalist known for his 1989 book The Japan That Can Say No, which advocated for a stronger international role for Japan not tied to U.S. interests or influence, said that the Tokyo municipal government was planning to buy three of the five Senkaku/Diaoyu islands from their private Japanese owner. Ishihara’s comments did little to stir up tensions at the time, but subsequent efforts to raise funds and press forward with the plan drew the attention and ultimately the involvement of the Japanese central government. The efforts also gave China a way to distract from its military and political standoff with the Philippines over control of parts of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Naval Ensign of Japan
For decades, Tokyo and Beijing generally abided by a tacit agreement to keep the islands dispute quiet. Japan agreed not to carry out any new construction or let anyone land on the islands; China agreed to delay assertion of any claim to the islands and not let the dispute interfere with trade and political relations. Although flare-ups occurred, usually triggered by some altercation between the Japanese coast guard and Chinese fishing vessels or by nationalist Japanese or Chinese activists trying to land on the islands, the lingering territorial dispute played only a minor role in bilateral relations.
However, Ishihara’s plans for the Tokyo municipal government to take over the islands and eventually build security outposts there forced the Japanese government’s hand. Facing domestic political pressure to secure Japan’s claim to the islands, the government determined that the “nationalization” of the islands was the least contentious option. By keeping control over construction and landings, the central government would be able to keep up its side of the tacit agreement with China on managing the islands.
China saw Japan’s proposed nationalization as an opportunity to exploit. Even as Japan was debating what action to take, China began stirring up anti-Japanese sentiment and Beijing tacitly backed the move by a group of Hong Kong activists in August to sail to and land on the disputed islands. At the same time, Beijing prevented a Chinese-based fishing vessel from attempting the same thing, using Hong Kong’s semi-autonomous status as a way to distance itself from the action and retain greater flexibility in dealing with Japan.
As expected, the Japanese coast guard arrested the Hong Kong activists and impounded their ship, but Tokyo also swiftly released them to avoid escalating tensions. Less than a month later, after Japan’s final decision to purchase the islands from their private Japanese owner, anti-Japanese protests swept China, in many places devolving into riots and vandalism targeting Japanese products and companies. Although many of these protests were stage-managed by the government, the Chinese began to clamp down when some demonstrations got out of control. While still exploiting the anti-Japanese rhetoric, Chinese state-run media outlets have highlighted local governments’ efforts to identify and punish protesters who turned violent and warn that nationalist pride is no excuse for destructive behavior.
Presently, both China and Japan are working to keep the dispute within manageable parameters after a month of heightened tensions. China has shifted to disrupting trade with Japan on a local level, with some Japanese products reportedly taking much longer to clear customs, while Japan has dispatched a deputy foreign minister for discussions with Beijing. Chinese maritime surveillance ships continue to make incursions into the area around the disputed islands, and there are reports of hundreds or even thousands of Chinese fishing vessels in the East China Sea gathered near the waters around the islands, but both Japan and China appear to be controlling their actions. Neither side can publicly give in on its territorial stance, and both are looking for ways to gain politically without allowing the situation to degrade further.
Political Dilemmas in Beijing and Tokyo
The islands dispute is occurring as China and Japan, the world’s second- and third-largest economies, are both experiencing political crises at home and facing uncertain economic paths forward. But the dispute also reflects the very different positions of the two countries in their developmental history and in East Asia’s balance of power.
China, the emerging power in Asia, has seen decades of rapid economic growth but is now confronted with a systemic crisis, one already experienced by Japan in the early 1990s and by South Korea and the other Asian tigers later in the decade. China is reaching the limits of the debt-financed, export-driven economic model and must now deal with the economic and social consequences of this change. That this comes amid a once-in-a-decade leadership transition only exacerbates China’s political unease as it debates options for transitioning to a more sustainable economic model. But while China’s economic expansion may have plateaued, its military development is still growing.
The Chinese military is becoming a more modern fighting force, more active in influencing Chinese foreign policy and more assertive of its role regionally. The People’s Liberation Army Navy on Sept. 23 accepted the delivery of China’s first aircraft carrier, and the ship serves as a symbol of the country’s military expansion. While Beijing views the carrier as a tool to assert Chinese interests regionally (and perhaps around the globe over the longer term) in the same manner that the United States uses its carrier fleet, for now China has only one, and the country is new to carrier fleet and aviation operations. Having a single carrier offers perhaps more limitations than opportunities for its use, all while raising the concerns and inviting reaction from neighboring states.
Japan, by contrast, has seen two decades of economic malaise characterized by a general stagnation in growth, though not necessarily a devolution of overall economic power. Still, it took those two decades for the Chinese economy, growing at double-digit rates, to even catch the Japanese economy. Despite the malaise, there is plenty of latent strength in the Japanese economy. Japan’s main problem is its lack of economic dynamism, a concern that is beginning to be reflected in Japanese politics, where new forces are rising to challenge the political status quo. The long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost power to the opposition Democratic Party of Japan in 2009, and both mainstream parties are facing new challenges from independents, non-traditional candidates and the emerging regionalist parties, which espouse nationalism and call for a more aggressive foreign policy.
Even before the rise of the regionalist parties, Japan had begun moving slowly but inexorably from its post-World War II military constraints. With China’s growing military strength, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and even South Korean military expansion, Japan has cautiously watched as the potential threats to its maritime interests have emerged, and it has begun to take action. The United States, in part because it wants to share the burden of maintaining security with its allies, has encouraged Tokyo’s efforts to take a more active role in regional and international security, commensurate with Japan’s overall economic influence.
Concurrent with Japan’s economic stagnation, the past two decades have seen the country quietly reform its Self-Defense Forces, expanding the allowable missions as it re-interprets the country’s constitutionally mandated restrictions on offensive activity. For example, Japan has raised the status of the defense agency to the defense ministry, expanded joint training operations within its armed forces and with their civilian counterparts, shifted its views on the joint development and sale of weapons systems, integrated more heavily with U.S. anti-missile systems and begun deploying its own helicopter carriers.
Contest for East Asian Supremacy
China is struggling with the new role of the military in its foreign relations, while Japan is seeing a slow re-emergence of the military as a tool of its foreign relations. China’s two-decade-plus surge in economic growth is reaching its logical limit, yet given the sheer size of China’s population and its lack of progress switching to a more consumption-based economy, Beijing still has a long way to go before it achieves any sort of equitable distribution of resources and benefits. This leaves China’s leaders facing rising social tensions with fewer new resources at their disposal. Japan, after two decades of society effectively agreeing to preserve social stability at the cost of economic restructuring and upheaval, is now reaching the limits of its patience with a bureaucratic system that is best known for its inertia.
Both countries are seeing a rise in the acceptability of nationalism, both are envisioning an increasingly active role for their militaries, and both occupy the same strategic space. With Washington increasing its focus on the Asia-Pacific region, Beijing is worried that a resurgent Japan could assist the United States on constraining China in an echo of the Cold War containment strategy.
We are now seeing the early stage of another shift in Asian power. It is perhaps no coincidence that the 1972 re-establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan followed U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China. The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands were not even an issue at the time, since they were still under U.S. administration. Japan’s defense was largely subsumed by the United States, and Japan had long ago traded away its military rights for easy access to U.S. markets and U.S. protection. The shift in U.S.-China relations opened the way for the rapid development of China-Japan relations.
The United States’ underlying interest is maintaining a perpetual balance between Asia’s two key powers so neither is able to challenging Washington’s own primacy in the Pacific. During World War II, this led the United States to lend support to China in its struggle against imperial Japan. The United States’ current role backing a Japanese military resurgence against China’s growing power falls along the same line. As China lurches into a new economic cycle, one that will very likely force deep shifts in the country’s internal political economy, it is not hard to imagine China and Japan’s underlying geopolitical balance shifting again. And when that happens, so too could the role of the United States.
We must remove the distractions and say only what is eternally important.
Today, perhaps as never before in human history, people find themselves in the middle of a constant battle for their attention. When people enter the classroom to hear the Word of God, this battle intensifies. As such, the teacher is not only fighting for the class to hear the Word of God in a fresh way, they must first fight through any number of distractions which are competing for the attention of the class.
The distractions generally take one of two forms. There are the obvious distractions such as cell phones, external noises, and whispering amongst students. These obvious distractions are best ignored and will usually fade as the Word of God begins to captivate the class.
The more subtle form of distraction is the type of distraction which masquerades as a search for an understanding of the Biblical text. The key to avoiding these subtle distractions is twofold: 1) Remember that we are reading the Bible as if we have never opened it before and, 2) Take pains to reiterate that the Word of God is for each and every person in the class. As such, it must be understood that the Word is being taught and received in an intimate fashion, regardless of the size of the class.
For example, when teaching the story of Creation presented in Genesis, there may arise a question as to whether the days of creation are literal 24 hour days or are meant to represent a longer periods of evolutionary change. While this may be a profound theological question which inspires a lively debate in the class, you can see how allowing the class to be distracted by this debate destroys any opportunity for the class to receive the words of Genesis in a personal fashion.
For example, in Genesis 2:7, we are confronted with the following,
“Then the Lord God formed a man from the dust of the ground and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life, and the man became a living being.”
Imagine, the Living God breathing in our nostrils! www.thebricktestament.com
That is intimate! Imagine, the Living God breathing life into our nostrils! A theological debate can add nothing to this beautiful imagery, and while scholarly debate may appeal to the intellect, it will do nothing to radically change the lives of those who listen.
When teaching the Word of God, scholarly debate is a distraction to be avoided.
As teachers, we must remove the distractions and say only what is eternally important. Only then can the class take the cup of the Word of the Living God and drink it deeply into their souls.
Most of the world who bothers to keep up with monetary matters, as we at The Mint are tasked with doing, have now digested and “evacuated” (to use the medical terminology) the jest of the FED’s last communication to the world. Amongst other things, the FED’s public image, Ben Bernanke, indicated
Bernanke’s Put will leave a painful mark on household budgets
that the all knowing Federal Reserve Bank, protector of the US currency and guarantor of full employment for all, will take the following actions:
1. The FED will keep the FED funds rate target zero bound through 2015. Since the FED funds rate has been zero bound for over three years now, the FED has taken to increasing the year at the end of this statement, in this case 2015, since they are reluctant to target a negative interest rate. Think of the year as just another decimal point in this absurd equation.
2. They will take Quantitative Easing (QE) to a whole new level. Starting with $40 Billion in free funds to holders of mortgage notes and other rehypothecated asset backed (the astute will note the oxymoron) trash each month, for the rest of their existence.
This is not a drill.
The FED has tipped their hand so far that even most bankers (save Morgan Stanley) and government officials now understand what is going on. We are witnessing what will come to be known as the Bernanke Put, or Ka-Put, as we now refer to it.
As Ira Epstein eloquently put it in his most recent Gold Report: “Basically, the Fed threw the kitchen sink at the market.”
The Bernanke Ka-Put, taken together with the recent comments by Mario Draghi of the ECB and the ruling of the German High Court, which further sealed the Euro currency’s inflationary demise, leave no room for doubt as to what the MO of the world’s Central Banks is.
What does it mean? The FED will print money to prop up the system no matter what happens. Rampant price inflation and intermittent panics (due to the malinvestment which is occurring as a result of the FED’s money printing) must now be assumed in any financial model and household budget.
Additionally, contingency planning, with the assumptions of the disruption of services and supply lines, must now take place. Malinvestment means that things will begin to “not work” (an understatement, to be sure) in the real world as a result of the financial engineering being practiced by the FED and every other Central Bank and banking cartel on the planet.
Today we turn our focus to an event which, like a sequel of a bad movie, has been widely ignored. The dreaded Fiscal Cliff. For those who do not recall, the Fiscal Cliff is the moronic sequel of the 2011 flop “The Debt Ceiling Debacle.” You can read our review of the first film here:
Most of the actors in the first film, Obama, Boehner, Reid, and Bernanke, are returning for the sequel, although there are rumors that Obama may be replaced by Mitt Romney if Romney is chosen over Obama in a fan poll scheduled in November. Tim Geithner, who did a poor job acting as the voice of reason in the original film, is expected back as well, albeit in a severely diminished role. His appearance in the film is largely contingent upon Obama winning the fan poll.
The sequel picks up the story where the original left off with Bernanke, Reid, and Boehner accelerating their vehicle towards a cliff, presumably to plunge into the canyon a la Thelma and Louise. The sequel begins with a cloud of dust, which eventually settles to reveal that the trio has abruptly stopped the car just before taking the plunge. After a collective sigh of relief, they hold a meeting and decide the following:
1. Instead of plunging off of this cliff, they will look for a larger cliff to plunge off of somewhere down the road,
2. Bernanke will pay for the gas with the money he stole from US Dollar holders and,
3. Rather than taking the plunge themselves, they will force Obama and Geithner, or Romney and Geithner’s replacement, to drive off the cliff.
The fan poll in November should serve to make this moronic sequel somewhat interesting, but either way, the winner will be handcuffed to the wheel with the accelerator at full throttle.
Our advice? Don’t bother watching this moronic redux. Like the Expendables 2, it is a desperate attempt by the actors to cash in on past glories. Unlike the Expendables 2, anyone living in the US will need to purchase an advance ticket to NOT see the Fiscal Cliff. Tickets can be found at your local coin shop. Simply trade you US dollars and bonds for gold and silver and you can ignore this catastrophe.
Hurry, there is precious little time before the Fiscal Cliff’s December 31 debut.
Today marks the beginning of the Jewish high holiday Rosh Hashanah, a celebration of the new year, a celebration of the creation of the world.
We are convinced that the Messiah, Jesus, is returning. We are equally convinced that it has not been given to any man to know the exact time of his return.
What we do know is that we will know the season of his return. The interpretations which we have heard of Jesus’s declaration recorded in Matthew 24:36 generally center around the premise that some sort of series of great catastrophes will be unfolding and a series of signs will be in some stage of fulfillment, implying that these things will mark the season of Jesus’s return.
Here at The Mint, we subscribe to a much simpler and more profound understanding of this scripture, drawn from an understanding of the Jewish wedding ceremony. Jesus will arrive during the fall season in the Northern Hemisphere.
In fact, based on the timing of His death and resurrection, the Passover, we believe that His triumphant return will logically take place over Rosh Hashanah. The celebrated Feast of Trumpets.
Feast of trumpets by Aleksander Gierymski (1850–1901): Painting of Hasidic Jews performing tashlikh (ritual washing away of sins) on Rosh Hashanah, placed on the banks of the Vistula River in Warsaw.
Not necessarily this fall, mind you. For it is impossible to know for certain. If one were to attempt to pick a specific year, the logical choices would be one of the upcoming Jubilee years, 2018 (starting on Rosh Hashanah 2017 on the Gregorian calendar) or 2068, or the final year of the 6000 year Jewish Calendar, 2240.
Yet it could be tomorrow, or the next day, as Rosh Hashanah has the element of uncertainty as to precisely when the new moon occurs. This detail fits nicely with Jesus’s declaration that we would not know the day or time.
With all of the things that are happening in the world, many have begun to speculate that the end is nigh.
Clearly, the end is always nigh, and calamities such as the ones humanity is currently suffering have always taken place to some degree ever since mankind chose to disobey God and turn their back on their Creator.
Today, with billions of us on the planet, these calamities are multiplied to a staggering degree. The good news is that God’s grace and mercy are experienced in abundance as well, and this will overcome all suffering and calamity as He daily establishes His Kingdom within and amongst us.
As Rosh Hashanah begins, we hold fast to our faith, cleanse our minds and spirits, and resolve to love and forgive as God has loved and forgiven us. The Messiah is coming, the trumpet is about to sound!
According to reports on Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong, the People’s Republic is on track to import more gold bullion in 2012 than the entire official holdings of the ECB. What does it mean for us, fellow taxpayer? Our guest contributor Brad Evans, who is writing on behalf of BullionVault, explores this economic trend and possible implications for your portfolio in the following insightful editorial. Enjoy and stay fresh!
Should You Accumulate Gold Like China?
In recent years, much has been written and speculated about the idea of Chinese authorities buying up massive amounts of gold bullion. Indeed, the amount of gold going to China has increased notably over the course of the past few years, and it certainly seems as if the country is making a concerted effort to accumulate a great deal of the precious metal resource. Is this just a passing trend, representative of independent economic movements, or a greater strategy with implications for the worldwide economy? Ultimately that remains to be seen, but one result of China’s accumulation of gold bullion is clear.
With many of the world’s dominant economies located in the United States and the Euro zone, the U.S. and countries that use the Euro generally prefer to keep the cost of gold low, if possible, so as to avoid the strengthening of the resource against their respective currencies. As things stand now, and have for some time, the U.S. dollar and the Euro are generally seen as popular reserve currencies, meaning that people in other economic zones frequently turn to the U.S. dollar and the Euro as the ultimate safe haven. As long as the price of gold remains relatively low, the dollar and Euro remain strong as reserve currencies. Therefore, it is plain to see why China buying up massive amounts of gold bullion may lead to an unwanted shift in gold prices that could take the focus away from the reserve currency status that U.S. dollar and Euro enjoy.
Perhaps more important for many people is how this economic strategy of China’s could affect your finances. World economic trends will come and go, and economies will strengthen and weaken accordingly – but can you benefit from buying up gold bullion in your personal life, on a smaller scale, in the same way that China hopes to benefit in the long run internationally? While you certainly can’t hope to influence any worldwide economic trends on your own – accumulating gold bullion may not be a bad strategy to consider if you feel that the price of gold will be rising relative to other assets in the coming years.
Buying gold bullion is simple enough. You just need to head to a precious metal trading site such a s BullionVault, where you can buy and sell gold as you please according to constantly updated world prices. These sites also offer you various convenient and secure storage options, meaning that if you want to you can easily accumulate a great deal of gold bullion. However, before making this or any investment decision it is important to formulate a sound investment strategy. For example, if you are looking for short-term stability or gains, gold investment may be risky at the moment, as the dollar is strengthening and gold may be weakening. But for long-term gains, this may be a strategy worth considering.
This has been a guest post on behalf of BullionVault, written by freelancer Brad Evans.
” by Francis S. Collins. Dr. Collins is extremely gifted geneticist who was the head of the project which lead to the mapping of the human genome. This makes him a rock star in the scientific community. He is also a Christian, which makes him a rock star in the Evangelical Church. In this book, his aim is to use both his personal faith journey and his revolutionary work as a geneticist to reconcile what would appear to be a long, deep chasm between the two most popular theories regarding the origin of the world: Evolution and Creation.
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