Tag Archives: BoJ

Mint Money Supply Digest, Silver

The Mint Money Supply Digest – June 24, 2013

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6/24/2013 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

And then there were two.

The liquidity drain initiated by the People’s Bank of China has caused a fire sale on financial assets across the globe as Chinese banks scramble to make various margin calls in the face of double-digit overnight rates.  Lee Adler, over at the Wall Street Examiner, offers some insight into the big squeeze currently underway:

US and Japan Pump It, Chinese Dam It and Suck, And Europe Sullenly Suffers Shrinkage

For the uninitiated, we beg of you to take a step back and to leave, just for a moment, any thought of “efficient market” hypotheses and market fundamentals behind and see the financial world for what it is:  A bunch of corporations with large credit card bills to pay and margin calls to meet.

Like anyone who has a large credit card bill to pay or margin call to meet, the ability to meet the obligation is more often than not determined by the willingness of other large corporations in similar situations to lend them money.  If they can, great, the credit rolls over.  If not, assets must be liquidated so that the debt can be paid.

The flaw in efficient market theory, with regards to financial markets, is that it implies stability when, in fact, most debtors, especially big ones, only liquidate assets as a final option.  As such, this type of liquidation often occurs suddenly and with little warning, hence the feeling of panic and cascading financial markets.

At their core, equity markets represent decisions at the margin. They often reflect this type of liquidation in an exaggerated manner.  In an odd way, this sort of whiplash seems to be the only way to spur Central bankers into action.

The actions of the PBoC suggest that they have had enough of the easy money policy that has dominated Central Bank actions for the past five years.  They have pulled the plug.  Does it have anything to do with Mr. Snowden?  Who knows, but it is what it is.

As it stands now, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan now stand alone on the mountain of insane monetary policy, watching the smoke plumes rise.

Anyone who has perused The Mint no doubt has noticed that we keep a relatively small collection of coins online.  This serves a dual purpose.  First, it allows us to quickly grab marketing copy should we have a particular coin in stock.  Second, it allows us to savor the coin as we attempt to put its dual faces into words.  Normally, this can be a tedious and relatively dull process.

1 OZ .999 Fine Silver First Anniversary Mount St. Helens Harry Truman Commemorative Round – 1981
1 OZ .999 Fine Silver First Anniversary Mount St. Helens Harry Truman Commemorative Round – 1981

Today was different, as we came across a relatively rare 1 OZ .999 Fine Silver First Anniversary Mount St. Helens Harry Truman Commemorative Round, minted in 1981.  For those who are unfamiliar with Harry R. Truman, we offer our marketing copy as a brief descriptor:

On one side of this coin is a bust of Harry R. Truman, the caretaker of the Mount St. Helens Lodge at Spirit Lake who stubbornly refused to leave his home even as the historic eruption was imminent. Truman was 84 when the Mount St. Helens erupted and is presumed to have died along with his 16 cats and 56 others that fateful day on May 18th, 1980. Truman’s bust is surrounded by the inscriptions “Courage,” “Spirit,” “Determination” above and his name, “Harry R. Truman” and the years he was born and died, “1896 – 1980″ below. The letters “KU” appear to the right, their meaning is unknown.

On the other side of this reeded coin is a depiction of Mount St. Helens erupting flanked by the inscriptions “One Troy Ounce” and “.999 Fine Silver,” to indicate its weight and silver content. The top of the coin, just above the smoke plume, is adorned with the inscription “First Anniversary.” Below the mountain are inscribed “1980 – 1981,” and the words “Mount St. Helens.” These beautiful coins are a great way to inspire your friends, loved ones, and co-workers by recalling the finer qualities of a man who became a hero for sticking by his desire to ride out a violent act of nature, come what may.

Mr. Truman, may he rest in peace, in many ways represents the Fed and BoJ today.  The other Central Bankers of the world have stepped cautiously back, away from the dreadful inflation for which the eruption of Mount St. Helens will serve as a handy metaphor of today.

1 OZ .999 Fine Silver First Anniversary Mount St. Helens Harry Truman Commemorative Round – 1981
1 OZ .999 Fine Silver First Anniversary Mount St. Helens Harry Truman Commemorative Round – 1981

Not Mr. Bernanke and his Japanese counterparts.  Both the US Dollar and Yen have been on the mountain longer than many of their counterparts, and their current caretakers are convinced that the bubbling inflation that their policies are stoking will simply blow over as they has in the past.

Are they right?  Or is it time to move away a safe distance from the mountain?

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for June 24, 2013

Copper Price per Lb: $3.03
Oil Price per Barrel:  $94.85
Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.53
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.55%
Mt Gox Bitcoin price in US:  $122.89
FED Target Rate:  0.10%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!
Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,283
MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  0.25%
Unemployment Rate:  7.6%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.1%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  14,660
M1 Monetary Base:  $2,432,200,000,000
M2 Monetary Base:  $10,621,100,000,000

Economics, Mint Classics, The Mint

G7 Meet to Stop Yen’s Dramatic Rise and the BLS Calls BS on its Broad CPI Measure – A Mint Classic

Over the past year, the Bank of Japan has tried numerous times to Kamikaze its currency and has failed miserably.  As of the writing of this classic Mint, the USDJPY exchange stood at about 80:1.  Check today to see how the Bank of Japan has fared.
 
As for the other theme, if anyone still believes in the BLS’ headline inflation number, they probably work at the Federal Reserve and watch I-Pad prices for signs of inflation!

Enjoy!
 
3/18/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…
 
The G7 Central Bankers have called an emergency meeting to “do something” about the “skyrocketing Japanese Yen.”  This meeting is simply their latest attempt to combat reality.  The reality of the situation in Japan is that they are dealing with a catastrophe.  When one is dealing with a catastrophe, the next prudent step, after all of the immediate crises have been contained, is to take stock of the situation.  By taking stock, we mean that one takes note of what was lost and, more importantly, what one will need in order to restore things to an acceptable level of comfort.Comforts cost money.  In Japan, to replace these comforts the average person needs Yen.  They will either get this Yen by making a claim with their insurance company or selling assets to raise cash.  With damages of nearly $15 Trillion Yen (roughly 3% of Japan’s GDP) and counting you can imagine how the demand for Yen is, well, about to skyrocket.

 
The Japanese people are still dealing with the catastrophe.  Speculators in the currency markets are, as always, one step ahead of what must happen and are sapping liquidity, in terms of Yen, at a rapid pace.  This activity, taken at face value, will presumably wreak havoc for Japanese Government Bond prices, the prices of stocks traded on the Nikkei, and the US Dollar.
 
These three markets will crash if nature is allowed to take its course.  You see, in the tipsy turvy world of currencies, to buy a yen more often than not means that a US dollar, a JGB, or a stock listed on the Nikkei is sold on the other side of the trade.
 
The most sought after currency in the world, at least until the G7 meet tomorrow
 
The accelerated selling of dollars, as Jim Rogers points out, could cause the endgame scenario for the US currency to swiftly come upon the world.  Mr. Rogers goes so far as to call this a “Moment of Truth for the dollar.”
You can see the brief interview by clicking here.
 
Of course, as Mr. Rogers points out, it may be time to buy the dollar, if for some reason it is to survive as a top tier currency.  We have lived just long enough to know that anything is possible.
 
The G7 meeting today is VERY IMPORTANT.  It should not be, if only the world had not left the embrace of sound money 40 years ago, but unfortunately, it is.  For the G7 will essentially decide whether to keep the Dollar on life support or to pull the plug.
 
What will they do?
 
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the legion of bureaucrats who are charged with cranking out data in order to support FED policy, appears to be starting its own form of political protest against the loose dollar policies followed by the Federal Reserve.  After faithfully cranking out the core CPI, a key statistic here at The Mint, for years and watching it slowly become distorted into the puppet statistic that it now is, they came out with a data point in 2002 called the “Chained Consumer Price Index” which takes into account a rolling average of food and fuel costs, which the core CPI now blatantly ignores.
 
This index hit a record high in February, confirming what most average Americans already know:  It has never been more expensive to live in the Land of the Free.
 
Will we be Brave enough to return to sound money?  You, fellow taxpayer, can take a step in that direction with just a few simple keystrokes.  APMEX, our affiliate, is running a contest.  They are giving away one 1 oz gold eagle coin each month.  All you have to do to enter is register by clicking this link and filling in the blanks.  You can register to win once per month.  If you so desire, click here and Register at APMEX.com Today!
 
By definition, the black hole of debt will always grow at a more rapid pace than the worthless currency that is printed in an attempt to fill it.  If the black hole collapses (i.e. widespread default occurs), hyperinflation will occur quickly.  If currency becomes scarce, people will find another medium of exchange, likely gold and/or silver.
 
Either way, the world will be out of this mess before long, so hold on to your hats, it is bound to be a wild ride to the other side!
 
Stay Fresh!
 
 
 
P.S.  If you enjoy or at least tolerate The Mint please share us with your friends, family, and associates!
 
Key Indicators for Friday, March 18th, 2011
 
Economics, The Mint

The Three Ring Circus Begins

10/25/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

What a difference a day makes.  Yesterday, it appeared that the authorities had most of the problems that ail the world’s economy resolved.  All they needed was a little more time, money and cooperation to implement their plans and the good times would be rolling once again!  Today, instead of coordinated, determined action, it appears that a three ring circus of sorts is beginning.

In Ring 1, we have the European Clown Car:  Yesterday, Europe looked ready to announce a plan to simultaneously solve the sovereign debt, banking, and resultant currency crises in one fell swoop.  Today, it appears that Italy is balking at implementing a growth plan on moment’s notice and Germany and France will need a miracle to announce a credible Pan-European rescue package by tomorrow, their self imposed deadline.  What a difference a day makes!

It should be clear by now to most sober persons that regardless of what is announced tomorrow, the Euro as a currency in its present form is not viable.  It should also be clear that the countries who have adopted the Euro will give away what is left of their sovereignty in a vain attempt to preserve it.

Step Right Up! The Three Ring Economic Circus Begins

In Ring 2, we have the American Elephants:  The US is quietly completing three Bond auctions that will cause the national debt higher than the national GDP.  The official total should eclipse GDP by the end of October.  100% of GDP is when the debt of a mere mortal nation (Greece, for example) has traditionally harkened national bankruptcy.

The only exception to this rule is in Ring 3, the Japanese Tight Rope Walker: Japan, where national debt is north of 200% of GDP.  How do they avoid bankruptcy?  Simple, they print money to pay the debt.  As if to prove our point, today, the Bank of Japan decided that they have seen enough Yen appreciation and announced another five trillion Yen currency printing campaign.

When money doesn’t exist, the sky is the limit, which is why commodities and certain equities are set to explode to the upside.  Bonds, while they may not fall in nominal value, will fall in relative value as they are repaid in severely depreciated currencies.

As if on cue, commodities took off today.  How high and far they will fly this time is anyone’s guess.

As the circus gets underway, the sober amongst us are beginning to wonder, sometimes aloud, “if the Governments, banks, and monetary authorities cannot solve these problems, then who can?”

The answer, fellow taxpayer, is right under our fingertips.  We, the People of the earth can solve it.  The tool we have been given is our own wit and ingenuity.  The only requirement is that we embrace True Capitalism, for better or for worse, for richer or poorer, until death do us part.

What is True Capitalism?  It may be summed up as a deep, radical respect for life, liberty, and private property.  It is an understanding that mutual cooperation is more often than not in our rightly understood interests (to use a Mises term).  It is not simply a choice, it is the only choice.  More to come.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

Key Indicators for October 25, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.41
Oil Price per Barrel:  $93.17

Corn Price per Bushel:  $6.51  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  2.13%
FED Target Rate:  0.07%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,705 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,707  

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,056,000,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,570,500,000,000 YIKES UP $1 Trillion in one year!!!!!!!

Economics, The Mint

The Disguise, Greece plays roulette with the Eurocrats, How inflation will express itself in USD Prices

9/12/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

The moment of truth is approaching for Greece.  Today the headlines flashed that the markets were pricing in a 98% chance of the Greeks defaulting on their sovereign debt.  A great lesson is about to be learned.  Is anyone paying attention?

The great lesson is the following:  Reliance on governmental and/or central bank action to stave off a default is not a sound strategy.  You may get lucky once, twice, even three times.  If one is particularly unfortunate, the strategy may even work many times in succession.

The government reliance strategy is like idly watching spins a roulette wheel with all your chips on red.  With enough spins, the ball will eventually drop on a black.  Think of it as the governmental version of a black swan.

Gambling on Government intervention

 

In the case of Greece, who abandoned its 2,000 year old currency to join the Euro club, there seems to be a lack of political will to ink the rubber stamp which approves the Greek’s next ration of Euros.  The taskmasters of the Eurozone are starting to realize that each time the stamp is inked, the sewage of Greek finances leaks a little further into their well. 

The populace is starting to get sick to their stomach, as are large banks on both sides of the Atlantic.  The French banking giants are queasy because much of the Greek debt is on their books.  In the New World, where about half of Greek debt is insured, the banking giants are getting nauseas.  It is the nausea of a drunk man realizing he will be stuck with the bar tab after his buddies sneak out of the tavern.

Meanwhile, as the politicians and central banks continue to bungle their way through this information, the market has already priced it in.

“Priced in?”  Astute, shocked, and astounded readers are surely thinking, “Then where is the crash in stocks and bonds?” 

Astute readers, of course, are right.  There is a crash occurring right now in stocks and bonds.  However, bond yields are down and the stock market is up because the crash is occurring against the backdrop of rapidly depreciating currencies and as such, the debauched currencies are disguising the crash.

The Disguise

Astute readers now have a collective light bulb in their head illuminating as they clearly see that inflation in consumer prices is set to accelerate in the near future.  Naturally, this obvious inflation would not be tolerable and as such must be masked in order for the general public to peacefully accept it.

For this acceptance to peacefully take place, the inflation must come in disguise.  Here is what is likely to occur once the loosened up monetary policies of the FED, ECB, BoJ, and BoE are in sync (with apologies to the 1990’s boy band):

A new dollar will be introduced with a convertibility ratio from old dollars of 10:1.  In other words, each current dollar will be the equivalent of a new dime.

Voila!  No inflation here.  The new and improved dollar now buys more than ever! 

The Debauched Dollar in disguise

Why choose a 10:1 ratio?  There are two compelling reasons for the US Currency to go through a reverse 10:1 split.  First and foremost, it is simple.  Since a majority of the world’s commerce is conducted in dollars, the disguise must be mathematically simple.  What could be simpler than moving a decimal place?

The second reason is less obvious but perhaps more compelling from the point of view of the monetary authorities.  The disguise would immediately eliminate the need for pennies and nickels and increase the demand for dollar coins.

At this stage in the game, it costs the US Mint more to create pennies and nickels than they are worth.  While we are not certain of the exact numbers as of today, some estimates have the value of the metals needed to create a nickel valued at $0.07 while the metals needed to create a penny are valued at $0.012.  This is before considering the energy and equipment necessary to strike the coins and distribute them.

At current metal prices, which are unlikely to drop in the near future, the US Mint is producing nickels and pennies at a loss.

This embarrassing detail makes the purchase of nickels and pennies a better risk free investment than US Treasury Bonds, the world’s current safe haven of choice.  The metal premium for Platinum, Gold, and Silver coins is widely known.  At some point, nickels and pennies will disappear from circulation and their metal premium will take precedence over their face value. 

Still, one may ask, “What difference does it make?  This 10:1 switch sounds like a great idea.  I’m sick of pennies!”

Oh, if only the switch were price neutral, it would make no difference at all.  How, then, do the stock, bond, and almost every other market continue to rally in the face of questionable macroeconomic fundamentals?

Tune in tomorrow.

 Trust Jesus and Stay Fresh!

David Mint

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

P.S.  For more ideas and commentary please check out The Mint at www.davidmint.com

Key Indicators for September 12, 2011

Copper Price per Lb: $3.97
Oil Price per Barrel:  $88.19

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.34  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.93%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,814 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%!!!   UP 0.7% IN ONE MONTH, 8.4% ANNUALLY AT THIS PACE!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  11,061  TO THE MOON!!!

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,181,100,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,456,000,000,000 YIKES!!!!!!!

Economics, Jesus, The Mint

Forgiveness, the FED, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and ECB to coordinate actions, will they formally peg exchange rates?

9/9/2011 Portland, Oregon – Pop in your mints…

Much ink is being spilled today in anticipation of what may or may not happen as the 10th anniversary of the events that occurred on September 11, 2001.  Here at The Mint, we take the somewhat radical view of the Amish in response to tragic loss.  We must forgive.  An important part of forgiveness is to avoid making or observing a memorial to the offense.  Memorializing an event is to keep it present before us.

As the US Empire is now conducting at least three extremely expensive military adventures which have their origins in the events that occurred that fateful day, forgiveness is probably not on many people’s minds this weekend.  Meanwhile, millions of dollars are being spent to memorialize it.

We must forgive.  It is our opportunity to choose the tree of life over the tree of the knowledge of good and evil.  To repair the fateful error made in Eden.

Under the cover of this memorial, we sense that an extraordinary event will occur which will impact the fortunes of many in the US, England, Japan, and Europe and others outside their borders with exposure to their respective currencies.

Debauchery

The Event which we refer to is the coordinated debauchery of their currencies. 

For the past four years, the FED, BoE, BoJ, and ECB have been engaged in a desperate attempt to debauch (devalue) their currencies.  They have had the predictably mediocre to poor results that one would expect from efforts made by this rare hybrid of an agency which combines the laziness of the banking class with the incompetence of the governing class.

The goal seems simple enough.  Print money to pay existing debts and encourage people to spend and to take on new debt.  So simple, that each of these Central Banks is currently running at their own pace down this calamitous path with little regard to how the outside world is reacting.

Guess what?  The outside world is not reacting as expected.

What they did not take into account, at least until now, was that there is quite a bit of money to be made from the fact that they are all running at different paces down the same path.  The nature of international finance is such that one Central Bank’s unbridled effort to debauch its currency leads to an opportunity to profit by borrowing in that nation’s currency and purchasing one of the other three currencies, which undermines the debauchery of the currency that is being purchased. 

Stark, as most thinking persons, cannot stomach the debauchery in his midst

This is commonly known as the carry trade, and these large Central Banks have taken all of the guess work out of it for the past four years.

We suspect that these four Central Banks see the immediate need to eliminate interest rate spreads amongst their currencies which will force those who ply the carry trade to purchase currencies outside of this group.

In effect, this ultimate coordination of interest rate policies will cause these four currencies to “peg” to each other, which should assure that the debauchery of their respective currencies will continue unchecked and likely accelerate.

According to Bloomberg, there is speculation that this type of coordination, a de facto currency peg to the dollar, could begin this weekend at the G-7 Meeting.

Will another stealth disaster befall the US this weekend?  If these Central Banks somehow coordinate their collective debauchery of the currency, the economic devastation of millions will march on.

Perhaps this is why Juergen Stark has suddenly stepped down from the ECB.  It will be more than any caring Bundesbank official can stomach.

Stay tuned and Trust Jesus.

Stay Fresh!

 

David Mint

 

Email: davidminteconomics@gmail.com

 

Key Indicators for September 9, 2011

 

Copper Price per Lb: $4.00
Oil Price per Barrel:  $87.20

 

Corn Price per Bushel:  $7.26  
10 Yr US Treasury Bond:  1.92%
FED Target Rate:  0.09%  ON AUTOPILOT, THE FED IS DEAD!

 

Gold Price Per Ounce:  $1,856 PERMANENT UNCERTAINTY

 

MINT Perceived Target Rate*:  2.00%
Unemployment Rate:  9.1%
Inflation Rate (CPI):  0.5%!!!   UP 0.7% IN ONE MONTH, 8.4% ANNUALLY AT THIS PACE!!!
Dow Jones Industrial Average:  10,992  TO THE MOON!!!

 

M1 Monetary Base:  $2,181,100,000,000 RED ALERT!!!
M2 Monetary Base:  $9,456,000,000,000YIKES!!!!!!!